The European Union harbours no illusions that Trump will change course following the blue tsunami

Brussels. The silence of much of the European Union regarding the results of the US mid-term elections shows that neither Ursula von der Leyen nor the other leaders are under any illusions that Donald Trump will change course following the ‘blue tsunami’ that gave the Democratic Party control of Congress. The hope is that the US president can be reined in on issues such as the war in Iran, the betrayal of Ukraine or tariffs. But the fear is that Trump will become even more unpredictable and vindictive in the way he wields his powers in foreign policy. The only person to speak about the mid-term election results within Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission was Maros Sefcovic, the Commissioner for Trade, who has negotiated with the Trump Administration on tariffs. “For us, compliance with the Turnberry Agreement is of fundamental importance and we are pushing hard to achieve further progress on steel derivatives,” was his cautious comment.

The next two years of Trumpism are likely to be just as turbulent as the last two. The EU’s damage-limitation strategy will not change. However, with the 2028 presidential election looming, von der Leyen and other leaders may be tempted to repeat the same mistake made during Trump’s first term: waiting for him to leave the White House in the belief that the transatlantic alliance will be restored by a new Democratic president. One need only look at the age and backgrounds of the newly elected Democrats, as well as their campaign platforms, to realise that America standing shoulder to shoulder with Europe is not going to return.

In a paper for the Centre for European Reform, Armida van Rij and James Green explain that the EU needs to work with Congress, state governors and the next generation of Democratic leaders to strengthen transatlantic ties. “Investing in these networks now is essential to securing the future of the alliance,” the two researchers write. But “the elephant in the room is whether US policymakers are interested in engaging with Europeans. There is often a lack of genuine interest on their part, partly because Europe is not seen as a priority requiring particular attention, either on Capitol Hill or in the offices of individual state governors”. According to Célia Belin and Majda Ruge of the European Council on Foreign Relations, “European issues are rarely at the centre of the Democrats’ foreign policy debates” and this could “become problematic” for Europeans “in terms of security”.

The generational shift within both parties has been underway for some time and is having a significant impact on Europe’s place amongst Washington’s priorities. Europe’s ruling classes tend to view the world through a Eurocentric lens. The newly elected Democrats – whatever their backgrounds – no longer feel any attachment to the Old Continent. Their priorities are different and often at odds with those of Europeans. In the post-election debates, the end of the war in Iran played a dominant role due to its impact on petrol prices. Ukraine was virtually absent from the discussion.

In 2018, after the Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives halfway through Trump’s first term, Europeans began to look forward to a change of president two years later. Only to discover that ‘America First’ was also a Democratic policy. Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act – a massive programme of subsidies and public investment – was adopted without any consultation with the Europeans and became a source of ongoing friction with the EU. “The blue tsunami changes nothing for us Europeans,” warns former French European Commissioner Thierry Breton: “We are on our own.” The EU risks “lulling itself into a false sense of security”, wrote Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group on X: “The forces driving America to withdraw from its traditional alliances are structural, not merely personal”. According to Rahman, “Europe should continue to pursue strategic autonomy, regardless of who leads Congress or the White House”.