Brussels’ roadmaps on enlargement lack courage

Brussels. The more progress the candidate countries make towards accession, the more the European Union loses enthusiasm for an enlargement it continues to describe as ‘strategic’, whilst fearing the internal political repercussions. Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine received positive assessments in the annual report presented yesterday by the Commission, which details the progress made by each of the ten candidate countries. However, despite the promise made less than a month ago to encourage the four frontrunners with a road map setting out the timelines for joining the club, only Montenegro has been given a definite timeline: the conclusion of negotiations by the end of the year, the signing of the accession treaty in June next year and potential accession in 2028.

As for the other three, the roadmaps do not contain any dates for accession to the EU. The Commission has merely expressed, in bureaucratic language, its view on the targets set by the candidate countries themselves. For Albania, concluding negotiations in 2027 is “realistic and ambitious, provided the country regains the momentum of reforms that has recently slowed”, a Commission official told Il Foglio. For Moldova, the date of 2028 is “realistic”, provided it continues at the current pace of reforms. For Ukraine, concluding negotiations by the end of that same year is an “ambitious” target. By omitting the adjective “realistic”, the Commission is signalling that it considers it highly unlikely that Kyiv will succeed.

“Every enlargement has strengthened our continent. The current geopolitical situation makes the next enlargement even more urgent,” said the High Representative, Kaja Kallas, whilst presenting the package alongside Commissioner Marta Kos. “When countries that are making progress are left waiting, it creates fertile ground for instability. Enlargement is a direct investment in Europe’s security,” Kallas pointed out. Yet the Commission contradicts this principle. Faced with Member States’ caution regarding enlargement, the Commission has been forced to scale back its plans to encourage candidate countries with specific timeframes for accession.

According to the roadmaps (which outline the most realistic scenario for the following year only and no further), Albania could close six negotiation chapters in 2026 and the remaining 25 in 2027. Moldova could open two sets of negotiation chapters this year and close 25 next year. Ukraine could open two sets of chapters in 2026 and close seven in 2027. Even the top performer, Montenegro, risks being held up by certain disputes with Croatia. “Montenegro is on track to become the 28th EU Member State in 2028,” said Kos. However, several long-standing disputes dating back to the Croatian War of Independence of 1991–95 (such as the exact demarcation of the border between the two countries and compensation for former Croatian prisoners) could prompt Zagreb to use its veto against Podgorica.

The caution shown by Member States stems from fears that enlargement could backfire politically due to a backlash from national public opinion or difficulties in making the EU function with more than 30 members. Montenegro, Albania and Moldova are considered small enough not to cause excessive problems. But Ukraine is a cause for concern due to its size and its agricultural sector (the Commission has confirmed that it will propose excluding Kyiv from the Common Agricultural Policy, if and when accession takes place). The principle of ‘merit-based’ enlargement (i.e. based on the reforms that must be carried out in order to progress) has become the pretext for holding back Kyiv’s accession, as the country must undertake difficult reforms in the midst of a war. ‘If you want to join the club, you have to do a lot, even if you’re a country at war,’ explains a Commission source.

As for the other six candidate countries, everything is at a standstill. The Commission reports setbacks for Serbia (which is on the verge of a change of government following the ousting of Aleksandar Vučić) and Georgia and Turkey (for both countries, the process has been put on hold). North Macedonia is at a standstill due to a dispute with Bulgaria. Bosnia and Herzegovina is paralysed by the influence of Bosnian Serb leaders. Kosovo is not even recognised by the whole of the EU. To compensate for the lack of political courage, the Commission has confirmed its offer of a gradual integration of the candidate countries into certain EU policies and various programmes prior to accession.