Ahead of Abu Dhabi, the EU discusses guarantees for Kyiv. The manoeuvres of the ‘willing’ in Poland

Brussels. Security guarantees for Kyiv are once again at the centre of discussions on a potential peace agreement, as the United States, Russia and Ukraine prepare for a new round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November. The European Commission will today host a meeting between representatives from Ukraine, the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, NATO and the World Bank to discuss plans to end the Russian war. “This meeting will build on the talks held in Miami, which were attended by Ukraine and the United States,” explained the Commission spokesperson. “With a view to achieving lasting and sustainable peace in Ukraine, the meeting will focus on the country’s post-war reconstruction and prosperity,” she added.

Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Kitkoff, who is expected to be in Brussels, has highlighted two further items on the agenda: security guarantees for Kyiv and Europe’s security architecture. Whilst visiting Berlin, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zleneksy, confirmed that security guarantees will be discussed in Brussels. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced a summit of the ‘coalition of the willing’ on 19 November to reaffirm the commitment to providing post-war security guarantees and to coordinate diplomatic efforts. Meanwhile, from 9 November, the coalition will have commenced its first exercises in Poland. They are named ‘Koalicja’ (coalition in Polish). They are expected to last until 22 November and demonstrate the credibility of this alliance led by France, the United Kingdom and Germany, which aims to establish a stabilisation force capable of deterring a new war by Russia against Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement.

The Koalicja exercises will involve around 2,800 soldiers from ten countries and will take place in south-eastern Poland, in a region close to the border with Ukraine. France and the United Kingdom are the largest contributors in terms of troops, with 1,500 and 300 soldiers respectively. Poland was chosen for geographical reasons and for the logistical role it plays in supporting Kyiv (Warsaw does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in future, but will participate in Koalicja with 500 troops). The other countries taking part in the exercises are Germany, Belgium, Estonia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and Turkey. Ukrainian military personnel will also be involved. The exercises are not intended as a show of force. The aim is to test the planning and command system, the procedures for transporting troops and equipment eastwards, and capabilities in defending against drones.

In addition to the ground component, air exercises are planned in Romania. According to The Guardian, this stabilisation force will not rely on American communication systems, and the rules of engagement are expected to allow for a response to drone attacks by Russia. The coalition of the willing will not be an interposition force or a peacekeeping mission. The aim is to ‘reassure’ (by deterring Russia through a presence on the ground) and ‘rebuild’ (by supporting the Ukrainian army with training and equipment). The plans drawn up in recent months envisage the stabilisation force being deployed in Ukraine, but away from the front line. The Europeans believe that the main guarantee of security will be a strong Ukrainian army.

Within the EU, few believe that the Abu Dhabi talks will yield positive results, because Putin is not taking the negotiations seriously. The diplomatic activity following Miami – including the Oslo meeting between Witkoff and Zelensky and the phone call from Finland’s Alexander Stubb and Norway’s Jonas Gahr Støre to Vladimir Putin – is driven by the need to prevent Trump from striking a deal behind Ukraine’s and Europe’s backs. The Brussels meeting will be attended by the national security advisers of France, the United Kingdom and Germany. The Commission will be represented by Ursula von der Leyen’s chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert, who has effectively established himself as the EU’s lead negotiator.