Texas and the Democrats’ fear of yet another disappointment

A cartoon currently circulating on social media captures the mood surrounding the Democrats in these mid-term elections perfectly. It depicts a small donkey—the symbol of the Democratic Party—staring in terror at a television reporting the victory of Democratic candidate James Talarico in Texas. Yet, even faced with the evidence of the figures, the donkey cannot bring itself to accept it; even as the television clearly tells it that he has won, the donkey cannot stop being afraid. 

This is precisely the impression one gets from the audience at James Talarico’s final campaign rallies; to round off his campaign, he has chosen to play it safe, rally those who can be rallied, and stop off at the Democratic strongholds of Houston, San Antonio and Austin.

Walking among the crowd of activists, what one senses is caution. Even scepticism. A determination not to believe until one sees it. Perhaps it is superstition (a rather unfamiliar attitude in these parts); or perhaps it is post-traumatic stress syndrome from Trump’s two victories; or the memory of the fleeting ‘phenomenon’ that was Beto O’Rourke; or uncertainty about what Trump might do after the vote: the fact remains that, at Talarico’s rallies, rather than the thrill of an imminent feat, there is a palpable fear of yet another disappointment.

Over the years, Texas Democrats have had to come to terms with too many illusions and too many dreams that have faded away before dawn to believe the polls they see.

Furthermore, they know that Texas is a state where the inertial vote for the Republicans carries enormous strength and weight: there are millions of voters in these parts for whom voting for anything other than the Republican Party is simply inconceivable. And that inertial, automatic vote – which comes mainly from the rural north of the state – is as unshakeable as it is difficult for polls and analyses to capture: polling agencies, in fact, by the very nature of how they operate, tend to capture the opinions of those who are better informed, of those who follow politics and elections more closely. Conversely, they tend to ‘miss’ the views of those who pay little attention and only realised the elections were taking place a few hours ago. And who will therefore, in all likelihood, vote as they always have. Especially given that voters are also electing a governor and that the outgoing Republican, Gregg Abbott – whilst less popular than he once was – remains very strong nonetheless. 

As if that weren’t enough to dampen Democratic enthusiasm, in recent weeks – thanks in part to Elon Musk’s financial injections – the Republican Party has flooded television channels with adverts, tailor-made for the least engaged and least attentive voters. Meanwhile, while James Talarico is busy delivering the Democratic Party’s key message of the last two years in a Texan flavour at his rallies (namely, a focus on the cost of living and the accessibility of services, starting with education and healthcare), the Republican adverts are capitalising on cultural issues, the debate (insignificant in terms of numbers, yet explosive in its electoral consequences) on care for transgender people, and so on, waving red flags. 

Against this backdrop, even though Texas Democrats know that they are unlikely ever to see such a favourable alignment of circumstances again (an unpopular Republican President, a Republican candidate – Ken Paxton – who is controversial to say the least, and a particularly strong and charismatic Democratic candidate), the prevailing sentiment amongst Talarico’s voters is one of caution.
They ought to be preparing to celebrate a miracle. Instead, for now, they are merely praying.

And the same thing – however curious it may seem – is happening more or less in every US state where the election appears to be too close to call, albeit favouring the Democrats. It is happening in Michigan, where the candidate Abdul El Sayed appears to be doing very well in the polls, but is having to contend with internal divisions within his own party that could weaken him from within.
It is happening in Alaska, where, through naivety and greed, the Democrats may have shot themselves in the foot by creating out of thin air a token candidate with the same name as the outgoing Republican senator, whose very existence could cast doubt on the party’s entire credibility.

This is happening in Maine, where for months the Democrats felt they had the race in the bag and are now coming to terms with the resilience of Senator Susan Collins, who is seeking her sixth term. The same dynamic is unfolding in states such as Kansas, Iowa, and Ohio—staunch Republican strongholds where polls now show a significant surge in support for the Democrats, likely due more to Republican abstention than to a genuine shift in the electorate. 

In the past, the Democratic Party would have celebrated the fact that it was at least in the running in a place like Kansas as a triumphant piece of news, and would have rubbed its eyes in disbelief at CNN polls showing it leading by as many as six points in Texas. Now
, however, the Democrats no longer believe in anything. Not even the figures. Not even their own hopes. And, at the end of James Talarico’s rally, they look around despondently: “Yes, there were plenty of us, that’s true. But will there be enough of us?”