In Poland, the coup is directed against the rule of law and dates back to 2015

Brussels. If there has been a ‘coup d’état’ in Poland, it is the one carried out by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party – now in opposition – when it came to power in 2015, using its majority and coercive tactics to seize and occupy state institutions. That coup against the rule of law – which some legal experts had described as ‘constitutional’ – continues to this day at the hands of President Karol Nawrocki, who is abusing his powers to prevent the restoration of the foundations of a functioning democracy led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Any other interpretation of the political crisis that unfolded in Warsaw at the weekend – such as those put forward by MAGA influencers, Vladimir Putin’s acolytes and their European allies – pursues an objective that has nothing to do with the rule of law. Rather, it seeks to polarise, sow division, destabilise and ultimately destroy liberal democracy in Europe.

The crisis in Poland is neither constitutional nor institutional, but purely political. It was not triggered by the attempt by certain judges to suspend the President of the Constitutional Tribunal, Bogdan Świeczkowski, and his deputy. The origins of the conflict lie in the illegal manoeuvres through which the PiS took control of the Constitutional Tribunal in 2015 and 2016. Several rulings by the European Court of Human Rights and the Court of Justice of the European Union, as well as the opinions of the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe, have established that the Polish Constitutional Tribunal cannot be regarded as a legitimate judicial institution because the appointments of its president and members under the PiS have deprived it of the requirements of independence and impartiality. In 2022, a ruling by Poland’s Supreme Administrative Court also established that the Constitutional Tribunal, due to the PiS’s unlawful appointments, had lost its capacity to adjudicate in accordance with the law.

In Poland, “the (un)constitutional tribunal is no longer a court”, explained Laurent Pech, Head of the Law School and Director of the Sutherland School of Law at University College Dublin, on BlueSky. “We are dealing with a legal body with a long history of illegal, not to say criminal, actions since 2016”. These crimes continue to this day, with President Nawrocki – elected as an independent but in reality acting as the PiS’s mouthpiece – attempting to prevent eight constitutional judges, legitimately elected by the Sejm (the lower house), from taking their oaths of office to replace certain judges due to retire. The President has no power to refuse the swearing-in. However, by preventing the new judges from taking up their posts, Nawrocki has prevented the Constitutional Tribunal from returning to being a judicial body operating in accordance with the principles of the rule of law.

Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission yesterday defended Tusk’s actions. “It is up to the Polish authorities to ensure that the Constitutional Tribunal can operate in accordance with the Polish Constitution and in compliance with the relevant case law of the Court of Justice of the EU,” said a spokesperson. “The appointment of eight new members of the Constitutional Tribunal falls within the constitutional powers of the Sejm, as confirmed by the Venice Commission in its opinion of 13 October 2026. Furthermore, on 5 May 2026, the European Court of Human Rights adopted interim measures requiring the competent Polish authorities to refrain from obstructing the appointment and exercise of judicial functions by the judges appointed by the Sejm in March 2026”, the Commission added.

Several legal experts have expressed doubts about the methods adopted by Tusk. Javier Cremades, a Spanish national and president of the World Jurist Association, wrote on X that “the Polish constitutional dispute should be resolved by other means (…). I understand the arguments put forward by the Polish government, but the police should have no role whatsoever within a Constitutional Court”.

According to Stefano Ceccanti, professor of Comparative Public Law at Sapienza University of Rome, “the issue raised by the Polish case is how to dismantle an illiberal democracy once illiberal forces have lost the elections but still have a strong foothold in society and institutions”. In Hungary, it was “easier”, because Peter Magyar has a two-thirds majority in Parliament to amend the constitution. In 2025, Nawrocki’s election as president thwarted Tusk’s plans to restore the rule of law. “It is true that liberal forces must not behave like their predecessors and must identify structural remedies”, but “they must also act decisively and without hesitation against those who seek to prop up illiberal remnants, such as the President of the Republic of Poland”, explains Ceccanti.

Another sceptic regarding Tusk’s approach is Jakub Karaczewski, research coordinator at Democracy Reporting International. But “a coup occurs when someone is trying to remove the government, not when the government is trying to remove someone else”, Karaczewski pointed out. And that is exactly what PiS is trying to do against Tusk, mobilising the public in Poland, together with its allies abroad – ranging from far-right parties in Europe to MAGA accounts in the United States, not to mention Kremlin propagandists.

The leader of the Rassemblement National accused Tusk of a “forced takeover of a constitutional institution” and denounced “the proliferation of power grabs within the EU”. “The situation in Poland is very serious. Arrests and a raid on the Constitutional Court – all to defend the anti-democratic EU”, wrote Nigel Farage on X. “Tusk is a left-wing EU globalist; Nawrocki is a right-wing Trumpist. They are totally incompatible (...) but the former is pro-Ukraine, whilst the latter is a Polish nationalist hostile to Kyiv,” wrote Alexander Dugin, one of the Kremlin’s ideologues.

“For years, there have been organisations and politicians in Poland seeking to destroy democracy and the rule of law,” Tusk said on Saturday in a televised address to the nation. “Is it greed, stupidity or treason? Ultimately, the effect is the same, and it is no coincidence that they find support amongst pro-Russian forces around the world; today, in this conflict, they are benefiting from the backing of an army of Russian bots on the internet. Indeed, they have even received public praise from the Kremlin’s chief ideologue.” The Polish Prime Minister promised to continue fighting to restore the legal and institutional legitimacy of the Constitutional Tribunal. “A democratic state must be strong and capable of enforcing the law,” said Tusk.