Putin is tormenting Ukraine and wants to have a say in the architecture of European security once again

Brussels. The attack on Dnipro station “makes it abundantly clear that Moscow is not interested in peace”, said the European Union’s High Representative, Kaja Kallas, yesterday. Thirteen people died at Dnipro station after it was struck by a Russian jet-powered drone. They join two fifteen-year-old girls who were killed by a Banderol missile strike on the centre of Chernihiv. Volodymyr Zelensky emphasised that concessions to Russia do not lead to ‘de-escalation’, but to ‘terrorist attacks’, and called for ‘tougher sanctions’. Taking advantage of Donald Trump’s betrayal, Vladimir Putin is not only stepping up the attacks but also expanding his demands. The latest is a withdrawal of NATO forces from countries that joined after 1997 and an end to the US nuclear presence in Europe.

“Russia wants to negotiate something new, something I’m not familiar with… it’s talking about security infrastructure in Europe,” said the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, during a visit to the Netherlands on Wednesday. The issue of European security architecture was raised by Putin during telephone calls with the Finnish President, Alexander Stubb, and the Norwegian Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Store. However, the Russian leader’s demands are not new. They had already been put forward to the United States and European countries on 15 December 2021 and 2 February 2022, in the form of draft treaties and ultimatum letters aimed at preventing the invasion of Ukraine that Russia was preparing.

To understand what security guarantees Russia is demanding, we need to refer back to the draft texts of the two treaties from five years ago. The first was intended to ensure the security of Russia and NATO member states. Three articles in the draft required the Alliance to revert to its pre-eastern enlargement positions, to abandon its missile deterrent and to halt further accessions. NATO members “undertake not to deploy military forces and armaments on the territory of any of the other states in Europe, apart from the forces already present there on 27 May 1997”, states Article 4, which also contains a clause to neutralise conventional deterrence. A deployment may take place in exceptional cases to eliminate a security threat, but only ‘with the consent of all parties’. That is to say, Russia.

The second treaty was to be signed only by Russia and the United States. The text obliged Washington to prevent further eastward expansion of NATO, to renounce military bases in the countries of the former USSR and to repatriate nuclear weapons deployed outside US territory. In return, Russia made no concessions. The two treaty proposals were, in effect, an ultimatum. On 2 February 2022, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sent a letter to all European countries – including those not members of NATO – demanding a response and binding commitments from their heads of government. This was the condition for ‘avoiding further escalation’. That is to say, war against Ukraine.

The invasion on 24 February had the opposite effect. Finland and Sweden rushed to join NATO. The Americans – until Trump took office – and the Europeans provided unprecedented military support to Ukraine. But Putin has not abandoned his original objectives. Trump is offering him a new opportunity with this fresh round of negotiations. “Not much has changed in substance,” an EU diplomat explains to Il Foglio: “Russia isn’t really interested in negotiations.” The risk is of “falling into Russia’s trap and offering something it didn’t have before”. Kallas often speaks of the “Gromyko trap”, named after the historic Soviet Foreign Minister who made maximalist demands, pushing Westerners to concede something in exchange for nothing, simply to avoid a conflict. This also explains the phone call from Stubb and Store: to make it clear to Putin that the Europeans will continue to support Ukraine and that striking a “deal” with Trump is not enough. “How can you negotiate a security framework in Europe without Europe? What will they negotiate, and with whom? With China? Interesting,” said Zelensky.