Trump and Putin realise they cannot do as they please without the Europeans. Ushakov’s comments

Brussels. Vladimir Putin seems to have realised that simply striking a ‘deal’ with Donald Trump is not enough to force Ukraine to capitulate and subjugate the country. The Europeans must also be involved. And even the American president is discovering that, without the cooperation of the European Union, his dreams of resuming business with Russia are more difficult to realise. “After Anchorage, it had seemed that the US administration was in a position to impose certain conditions and force Kyiv to comply. But so far, this has not really worked,” said Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, on the state television channel Vesti on Sunday. “Talking only to Kyiv is not enough. We must speak to the whole of Europe, which fully supports Kyiv,” said Ushakov, before backtracking yesterday.

Also interviewed by Vesti, Ushakov yesterday spoke disparagingly of Europeans who wish to be part of the discussions on Ukraine. “They can come if they buy tickets, but no one intends to invite them to the negotiating table,” said Putin’s adviser. Yet on Sunday, Ushakov himself had let slip an unusual and more significant remark. “Perhaps Europe’s position plays a key role.” Putin has ignored the Europeans and their demands since the start of the war. But, according to Ushakov’s words, for the first time the Kremlin seems to recognise that having Trump on its side is not enough.

Across the Atlantic, too, there have been moves towards the Europeans. The invitation to France, the United Kingdom and Germany, as well as to a representative of the Commission, to attend the meeting in Miami on 9 October came from the American side. European national security advisers were not kept in a separate room during the discussions between Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Volodymyr Zelensky’s delegation. With a few variations – Italy instead of France, and the presence of the Finnish President, Alexander Stubb, and the Norwegian Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Støre – the same thing happened in Oslo during last week’s meeting between Witkoff and the Ukrainian President. Returning from St Petersburg after his talks with Putin, Witkoff admitted that there is still work to be done. The pressure on Kyiv – to halt the sharing of intelligence, block supplies of Patriot interceptors and reduce its connection to StarShield – is not enough. As long as Ukraine benefits from the support of the EU and other European countries, the ‘deal’ from the mid-August summit in Alaska cannot be realised.

European support for Ukraine has often been hesitant and slow to materialise. The EU has not yet done everything in its power regarding funding, arms production or sanctions. Yet the support has been unprecedented. The EU and its member states have provided aid totalling over 231 billion euros. A further €45 billion loan, following the €90 billion loan agreed last year, will be approved by the end of the year, likely through further EU joint borrowing. Twenty-one rounds of sanctions have been adopted, inflicting enormous damage on the Russian economy, and the twenty-second is on the way. Any bilateral agreement between Washington and Moscow must take account of European sanctions. Exporting fertilisers from Russia is more difficult whilst the Baltic states maintain their ban on transit to their ports. Transporting Russian diesel to the United States means running the risk of seeing ‘shadow’ tankers intercepted by the Europeans. To implement the diesel agreement, Putin has asked Trump to resolve the issue of sanctions against Russian banks, following their exclusion from the SWIFT system, which falls under European jurisdiction. Over 200 billion euros of Russian sovereign assets remain frozen in the EU.

Continued support for Ukraine could force Trump and Putin to accept a role for the Europeans in the negotiations. Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission is pushing to be involved, alongside France, Germany and the UK, in the negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States, which are due to take place in Abu Dhabi in November. “We are working towards a multilateral round table,” an EU official explained to Il Foglio. “I don’t think (Putin) will change his mind, but he has had the opportunity to hear our position very clearly. I fear that some of these messages do not get through to him when it is the Americans who are speaking to him,” said Støre, explaining the reasons behind his phone call with Stubb to Putin. The Europeans no longer wish to be represented by Trump and are not prepared to accept their own capitulation or that of Ukraine.