Why Machado has returned to Venezuela, taking everyone by surprise

The Spanish daily ABC reports that, on her eighth attempt, María Corina Machado has finally managed to return to Venezuela via Colombia. She made an appearance at a thanksgiving mass at the Church of Santa Rosa in Barquisimeto, in the state of Lara, where she was immediately surrounded by a huge crowd who then continued to form a guard of honour along the procession of cars and motorbikes as she made her way back to Caracas. Thousands of people gathered on motorways, at motorway toll booths and on roads to welcome her with Venezuelan flags and shouts of “freedom!”, whilst she, dressed in a white T-shirt and blue jeans, waved to the crowd from the roof of a car and shook hands with her supporters.

Last Wednesday saw the conclusion of the third round of negotiations between Jorge Rodríguez, President of the National Assembly (and brother of interim President Delcy Rodríguez), and Dinorah Figuera, the president-in-exile of the opposition-majority National Assembly elected in 2015 – against which Maduro staged a coup and which has since extended its term. This process has the clear backing of the US government; the opposition delegation had specifically requested that the Nobel Peace Prize laureate be allowed to return, and both Marco Rubio and Donald Trump have expressed their satisfaction at her return. The Secretary of State, in particular, maintained that Machado’s return was made possible precisely thanks to the negotiations supported by Washington. “We hope that all political actors will support these talks, which represent the best opportunity Venezuela has had in the last thirty years to peacefully achieve not only free and fair elections, but also a lasting democracy,” said Rubio. The President, however, said he was unaware of her arrival, “but I think she is a very kind woman. She gave me her Nobel Prize, so how could I say otherwise?”, he said.

María Corina’s entourage express their gratitude. “We are also grateful to the broad bipartisan coalition in the US Congress and to allied governments such as Italy, which support the restoration of democracy in Venezuela,” María Claudia Lopez, Machado’s spokesperson in Italy, tells Il Foglio. “Her return is intended to actively contribute to ensuring that this process proceeds in a stable, peaceful and secure manner. Special thanks go to President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the US government for their commitment to the actions taken on 3 January, which paved the way for the progress we are now making towards a democratic transition and the holding, in the near future, of free, fair and verifiable presidential elections.”

Well-informed sources, however, are keen to clarify to Il Foglio that the return had nothing to do with the Rodríguez-Figuera negotiations. This confirms the rumour that these talks are a manoeuvre – with Trump’s blessing – designed precisely to oust the Nobel laureate. “Those who represent the will of the Venezuelan people are Maria Corína Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, who won the primaries and the presidential election respectively. Those currently negotiating do not have a mandate from the Venezuelan people, because some come from a rigged election, whilst others come from an election held eleven years ago.”

“The fact that a date has still not been set for the next presidential elections is a cause for concern,” Rodrigo Diamanti, founder and president of the human rights NGO ‘Un Mundo Sin Mordaza’, tells Il Foglio, having just returned to Venezuela after a twelve-year exile following his arrest. “Her decision took everyone by surprise, including the Miraflores Palace and the White House,” comments political scientist Benigno Alarcón Deza. “Her return is not the result of negotiations, but rather her own choice to return to Venezuela, the place in the world where her life has meaning.” “The US government did not prevent her return, but neither did it facilitate it; otherwise, she would have returned via Maiquetía Airport and probably been accompanied by an official from the Trump administration.”

In short, according to Benigno Alarcón Deza, “his return to Venezuela is the most significant political event since 3 January and will have consequences”, becoming the “catalyst for a process that Delcy Rodríguez’s government could only have halted through repression”: a form of repression that is no longer possible. The Economist, too, argues in an editorial that the Venezuelans’ triumphant welcome for Machado carries a very clear polemical implication directed at a Trump–Delcy axis which polls reveal to be increasingly unpopular, although it speculates on a division between one section of the Trump administration that would happily do without it and another that would instead prefer to involve it. In particular, among Republican congressmen from Florida, who are heavily reliant on the Hispanic vote, “the appalling way in which she handled the earthquake shows that problems aren’t solved with Delcy, and with a minimum wage of two dollars a month, people have had enough”, observes Diamanti. Machado’s political clout is reflected in the polls. The latest AtlasIntel poll, conducted for Bloomberg, gives Machado a 61 per cent approval rating and 52 per cent of the vote, compared with Delcy’s 19 per cent, in a hypothetical presidential election.