Italy left in an awkward position by Haftar, who is now dancing with the Russians and the Turks

With the benefit of hindsight, a few days after the ratification of the memorandum on maritime borders between Libya and Turkey, there is a feeling in Rome that perhaps the Libyan issue could have been handled differently. Supporting American efforts to unify Libya with Saddam Haftar as president has ended up driving the general from Benghazi into the arms of Turkey, our direct rival in the country. The economic and political impact of the memorandum on Italy would be significant, not least because it would grant Ankara considerable freedom to explore the seabed off the Libyan coast, just a stone’s throw from our country.

On both public and private occasions, the Italian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated its support for the American initiative launched by the White House Special Envoy for the Middle East and Africa, Donald Trump’s father-in-law, Massad Boulos. Last June, when Saddam flew to Washington to shake hands with the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Giorgia Meloni’s diplomatic adviser, Fabrizio Saggio, also made a surprise appearance. That was clear evidence that Italy intended to put its stamp on the plan drawn up by Boulos. Washington’s idea is that eastern and western Libya, after years of war and divisions, could suddenly be pacified through a Solomonic division of posts: on the one hand, Saddam Haftar as President of the Libyan Republic; on the other, Abdulhamid Dabaiba as Prime Minister. Today, that plan is revealing all its unintended consequences, and if it were actually to be implemented, Italy would find itself just a few miles off its own coast with an allied president, armed and funded not only by the Russians but also by the Turks.

According to Arturo Varvelli, head of the Italian desk at the European Council on Foreign Relations, “Italy has ended up in a dead end. We are always trying to patch things up on migration and energy issues, constantly hoping that the diplomatic corps will come to our rescue, as has often happened. Now, however, we realise that supporting Haftar was a mistake because it strengthens the Russians and now the Turks as well”. The original sin of Italian foreign policy in Libya, according to the expert, dates back to 2019. “The current situation shows that if you don’t play the game, you’re sidelined by the others. That year, we had the opportunity to sit down at the negotiating table and back the then government of Fayaz al-Sarraj against Haftar. We decided not to do so, to remain spectators, and so the Turks stepped in.”

Meanwhile, it is unclear who is calling the shots in Italian and European diplomacy in Libya. Italy is wavering. At the Farnesina, officials remain silent and suggest enquiring at Chigi, where the diplomatic office states that the official Italian position is that of the EU, as expressed on Wednesday in a terse statement by the High Representative for European Foreign Policy, Kaja Kallas, who has never been particularly fascinated by or involved in Europe’s southern front. The memorandum “is null and void and has no legal effect; it cannot produce any legal consequences for third countries”, states the communiqué, which reads like a copy-and-paste of the one issued the previous evening by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Even if the memorandum has no legal validity, “Greece is now very alarmed; it is the country suffering the most damage because the conflict with Cyprus is escalating, but also because of the need to manage the issue of territorial waters around Crete. Similarly, for Italy, there is the unresolved issue of the EastMed pipeline, which passes through that area of the sea”, explains Varvelli, referring to the gas pipeline intended to connect the natural gas fields of the eastern Mediterranean to continental Europe.

Whilst in Rome the handling of the Libyan dossier remains unclear and the memorandum affair increasingly resembles a boomerang for our interests, the latest snapshot provided by Italian diplomacy shows Giorgia Meloni’s diplomatic adviser shaking hands with Saddam Haftar in Washington alongside Massad Boulos. It was the end of June, and it has taken just a few months for observers to now wonder whether, after all, it might not have been better to stick to more moderate positions.