The race for the run-off in Brazil is between candidates, judges and bankers

The race to the run-off in Brazil now seems increasingly straightforward for Flávio Bolsonaro, who is soaring in the polls and gaining support amongst the candidates defeated in the first round. But the contest is also shifting to the judicial arena. On the one hand, there is Alexandre de Moraes, a judge at the Federal Supreme Court, who has issued an arrest warrant for Flávio’s brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro. On the other side is the candidate himself, who is attacking the judge and proposing a constitutional reform to place limits on what he describes as abuses of judicial power, accusing the judiciary of preventing Brazil from enjoying a ‘full democracy’.

The latest poll puts Flávio on 53 per cent of the vote in the run-off on 25 October. This result can largely be explained by the support from the other candidates: his 47.03 per cent in the first round, added to the votes for Augusto Cury (2.89 per cent), Ronaldo Caiado (2.18 per cent) and Romeu Zema (0.27 per cent), brings the total to just over 52 per cent. Cury, the last to throw his support behind him, secured guarantees on eight policy points in return. Lula, on the other hand, can count on the backing of three far-left candidates, who together garnered just 0.15 per cent in the first round. The outgoing president is therefore aiming to win back a portion of the record number of voters who did not turn out in the first round, mobilising them via social media.

However, what is complicating the Bolsonaros’ campaign above all is the case of Eduardo, who was sentenced to four years and two months in prison for attempting to influence the legal proceedings against his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. The former MP has been living in the United States since 2015 and, on 26 May, accompanied his brother on a visit to Donald Trump. He now risks serving his sentence in the United States. Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who presided over the preliminary investigation in the trial that culminated in Jair Bolsonaro’s sentencing to 27 years in prison for attempted coup, has issued an arrest warrant for Eduardo. The decision has given Flávio the opportunity to directly attack the judge. “Moraes, do the nation a favour and resign.” According to the candidate, the timing is no coincidence: the arrest warrant was allegedly issued in the midst of the election campaign to provoke a scandal. Flávio then threatened that the Senate would take action against judges accused of abuse of power: “After Sunday’s elections, we already have nearly 50 senators, out of a total of 81, in favour of removing judges who abuse their power. The Senate will have a responsibility to protect the Federal Supreme Court from people like you.” However, Moraes himself has come under scrutiny for alleged improper dealings with Daniel Vorcaro, the banker at the centre of the Banco Master collapse. The affair began on 17 November 2025, when Vorcaro was stopped on the tarmac at Guarulhos Airport in São Paulo as he was about to board a private jet. Initially detained on the grounds that he posed a flight risk, he was arrested a few months later on charges of banking fraud, corruption and money laundering. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Central Bank has ordered the liquidation of Banco Master, with losses estimated at around eight billion euros.

According to investigative reports, Vorcaro is said to have built up a vast network of connections to shield the bank’s operations from public scrutiny. This network is said to have included economists, influencers, civil servants, politicians and judges: some are said to have been paid to support Banco Master, whilst others were bribed to facilitate illegal transactions. When this strategy failed, the banker is alleged to have resorted to intimidation and blackmail against those who stood in his way, including journalists and officials, even going so far as to plan physical assaults. Vorcaro’s funding is said to have reached various political circles. His money also found its way into “Dark Horse”, the film about Jair Bolsonaro, but is also alleged to have been channelled to figures close to Lula and members of the judiciary. Among the relationships under scrutiny is that with the law firm of Viviane Barci de Moraes, the judge’s wife, who is said to have signed a contract worth 22.2 million euros with Banco Master. The police have also recovered fragments of conversations between Vorcaro and Moraes that would suggest an unusual degree of familiarity between the two. For the time being, however, no conclusive evidence has emerged that the judge favoured the banker.