The protests continue, but there are still positive signs. France is not quite in such disarray after all

Nice. France presents a chaotic picture today. The intensification of protests in secondary schools is being amplified by media coverage that is particularly focused on acts of violence. A turbulent autumn had been expected due to petrol price rises, but instead it was the secondary school pupils who took the lead in the protests. Last Thursday, around 300,000 people marched through the streets in demonstrations organised by the trade unions, which took steps to prevent troublemakers from joining the protests, whilst also discouraging the police from using excessive force. In a shrewd move, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu invited headteachers of secondary schools to organise opportunities for democratic debate, thereby offering students – frustrated by school closures and police baton charges – the chance to have their say. Meanwhile, dark clouds are gathering over the economy, with public debt yields having recently hit the 5 per cent mark. All this is happening whilst the minority government led by Lecornu is already struggling to reach a consensus on the 2026 Budget Bill, which risks coming under fire from both sides of the presidential campaign. Moreover, the political landscape in the run-up to the presidential elections continues to be dominated by the extremist candidates, Le Pen and Mélenchon.

There is great turmoil within the centre, with a Socialist primary that seems to be a source of division rather than unity, whilst on the centre-right none of the contenders – Attal, Retailleau or Philippe – seems willing to step aside in the interests of unity. When we put these factors together, a very worrying picture emerges.

However, simply observing the dynamics of the crisis is not sufficient to provide a complete contextual picture. France has excessive social spending, which some consider to be out of control. The healthcare and pension systems offer very solid safeguards. Put simply, the French work fewer hours than others and are better protected in the event of illness or unemployment. Industrial production appears to be stagnating, with some sectors in difficulty, such as the automotive industry, whilst the technology sectors are growing. The French economy is not in such disarray, and in some sectors there is further scope for growth which could also benefit from an extension of working hours. After all, the Bayrou government had almost succeeded in bringing the social partners together around the table to reform the pension system: we can build on that to reach a compromise that can put France back on track.

French society also demonstrates a remarkable capacity for resilience. A few days ago, around a million people gathered around the Holy Father: Pope Leo’s visit to France was a moment of great spiritual fervour, with crowds united in their search for meaning in the face of an often brutal modernity. Are there two distinct Frances: that of the Catholics gathered to receive the Eucharist and that of the young people shouting ‘Macron, resign!’ on the city streets? Not necessarily: the young Catholics share the now-traditional criticisms of a secondary school system struggling with practical problems, such as classrooms that are unsuitable in hot weather, a shortage of supply teachers, a difficult-to-manage reform of the school-leaving exams, and the long-standing issue of university access via the Parcoursup platform – an algorithmic system that for years now has been causing extreme stress for students and their families.

On the political front, La France insoumise seeks to present itself as the champion of youth activism, whilst also adopting a critical stance towards the police – a strategy that is in keeping with the protest-oriented nature of Mélenchon’s party, but which carries a risk should the party be associated with acts of violence. Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, which is struggling to turn the page following Bardella’s anti-Semitic remarks, is a party traditionally in favour of law and order. Lately, however, it has also presented itself as the party of those disillusioned with the system, and therefore cannot distance itself too far from such demands.

There is, of course, a risk that the crisis could escalate, with a convergence of protests – starting with university students – which could bring certain parts of the country to a further standstill. On the other hand, this generation’s emergence on the political scene is creating pressure in the electoral context; it is by no means a negative factor. It may not necessarily benefit a particular candidate, but it certainly demands concrete responses from all political forces: it is a democratic demand.