The plague denied by Moscow. A second case and sealed borders

A second case has emerged – or rather, reports of a second case and death in Russia due to pneumonic plague. Local independent journalists report that another person is said to have died in the hospital where Daria Shipilova, a technician at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute, died on 2 October. No confirmation: Moscow is not commenting on the matter.

Very few facts have been established. Shipilova, aged 28, was admitted to hospital on 29 September and died on 2 October. On 4 October, Rospotrebnadzor referred to “pneumonia of unknown aetiology”, with no microorganisms linked to her work and no laboratory incident. Of the approximately two hundred contacts who were placed in isolation, two tested positive for Covid and two for a rhinovirus, and 60 per cent have already been discharged as they showed no symptoms. According to the Moscow Times, police have reportedly launched an investigation into possible health and safety breaches resulting in a fatality. On 5 October, Mongolia – which has natural foci of plague – sought clarification from the institute and was told that the case had not been confirmed.

On the 6th, the WHO announced Moscow’s response to its request for verification: there are no reported cases of plague in the region and no dangerous pathogens have been found amongst those who came into contact with the patient. The researcher’s illness, the Russians explained, had begun as a common respiratory infection. However, the WHO had to ask – and has yet to receive a reply – what the cause of the pneumonia was, which pathogen had justified the measures taken, and what truth there was to the report of a second patient. The risk remains moderate to low for Irkutsk, low for Russia, and very low for Europe. Stating that there is no plague in Irkutsk, however, does not explain what Shipilova died of. It remains to be explained why such a massive response was mounted for a case of ordinary pneumonia.

Meanwhile, Washington is stepping up its rhetoric. On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there was no cause for alarm but that vigilance was required; on Tuesday, in Iceland, he stated that the United States was monitoring the situation “hour by hour” and that Moscow should share more information. Donald Trump described Shipilova’s death as “a major problem for Russia”, offered assistance and announced a telephone call with Putin “very soon”. Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former Secretary of State, wrote on X that the news should be treated “with the utmost seriousness, especially given the source”: Covid has shown how “lies and obstructionism” by authoritarian governments can turn a containable outbreak into a global pandemic. However, Moscow has yet to respond: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov urges the public to trust only Rospotrebnadzor and not “rumours or speculation”. There is no plague, nor was there even an incident.

Neighbouring countries are not waiting around. Kazakhstan has stepped up health checks at border crossings: no travellers with a fever are permitted, and the risk of importation is deemed low. Kyrgyzstan, which does not share a border with Russia, has placed all border health checkpoints on high alert, carrying out checks on people, vehicles and goods. Uzbekistan has raised the alert level of its anti-importation services.

However, the past weighs heavily on the whole affair. The institute, founded in 1934, also carries out research into cholera and anthrax. Marshall Billingslea, a former US arms control envoy, writes that in the 1990s Ken Alibek, former deputy head of Biopreparat, spoke to him about an antibiotic-resistant plague and ‘chimeras’, naming the institute in Irkutsk as one of those involved. The State Department report of April 2025 accused Moscow of maintaining an offensive biological weapons programme in violation of the Convention prohibiting such weapons: the programme inherited from the USSR, which had been “absorbed, not dismantled” and partly modernised.

As of 7 October, therefore, there are no confirmed cases of the plague, no secondary infections, and no evidence of a second death. We know what Moscow has ruled out; we do not yet know what killed Shipilova; and we are seeing reactions that are inconsistent with a simple case of pneumonia of unknown aetiology.