The EU has lost its enthusiasm for enlargement. Who’s next in line, the process and the case of Ukraine

Brussels. The European Commission is today set to present its review of pre-enlargement policy, a series of proposals designed to prepare the EU for the wave of accessions from the Western Balkan countries, Ukraine and Moldova. Time is running out. Montenegro could become the EU’s 28th member state as early as 2028, followed by Albania the following year. Moldova and Ukraine will be considered priority candidates, for which the Commission will draw up a specific roadmap. The basic principle of the ‘merit-based’ process – that is, the adoption of reforms to align with EU legislation – will not change. The Commission intends to provide a series of incentives to candidate countries. The most concrete of these are expected to be realised through so-called ‘gradual integration’ into EU policies and programmes, even before formal accession takes place. The more symbolic incentives include the appointment of a non-voting Commissioner, following the signing of the accession treaty and prior to actual accession. However, from the draft Commission proposals that have been circulating in recent weeks, and from discussions amongst Member States over the past few months, a trend is emerging: enlargement is once again losing momentum. The fears of national governments and the potential hostility of public opinion towards the integration of a large country such as Ukraine could lead to paralysis once again.

The review of the pre-enlargement policy is designed more to protect current member states from new entrants than to provide a decisive boost to a 34-member EU. The most original ideas put forward in the spring – when the Trump administration had included Ukraine’s accession among the points of a potential peace plan with Russia – have been shelved. The Commission has abandoned the idea of a ‘reverse enlargement’ process, involving immediate accession for certain candidates but with limited and reversible rights, after encountering strong opposition from some large Member States. In the document to be presented today, the main proposal is expected to be ‘gradual integration’. The aim is to enable candidate countries to persuade their citizens to accept domestic reforms by granting them access to the benefits of EU membership in certain sectors. But this is not really a new idea. The countries of the Western Balkans have already been offered the opportunity to join the EU’s Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA). Ukraine and Moldova are connected to the EU’s electricity grid. Some observers fear the risk of a new ‘waiting room’ that could further delay the accession process. To reassure public opinion across the EU, the Commission will propose a series of lengthy transitional periods: it will take years for new members to benefit fully from the Common Agricultural Policy and the Cohesion Policy.

To take on board the lessons from Hungary, the Commission has devised an anti-“Trojan horse” clause to be included in the accession treaties with candidate countries. For a certain number of years, new member states would forgo the right to use their veto and undertake to accept demotion in the event of systematic breaches of the rule of law. Revising the EU treaties, on the other hand, remains a taboo. The Commission will confine itself to urging Member States to make use of the flexibility offered by the current treaties in decision-making processes, as well as to make greater use of enhanced cooperation. According to Sandro Gozi, a Renew MEP, without treaty reforms to adapt the institutions, the Common Agricultural Policy and the Cohesion Policy to a large country such as Ukraine, its accession “will be postponed, becoming a long-term issue”. Russia’s war against Ukraine had given new impetus to the enlargement process, leading the EU to recognise the strategic importance of attracting new members. There is consensus amongst the 27 Member States on the possibility of easily integrating small countries such as Montenegro or Albania.

But when the moment of truth arrives, enthusiasm for Ukraine’s accession is waning. After negotiations between the United States and Russia on a potential peace agreement – which included Kyiv’s accession – reached an impasse, “the sense of urgency has faded”, an EU diplomat explains to Il Foglio. At the European Council on 15 and 16 October, when the Commission’s proposals will be discussed for the first time, heads of state and government may limit themselves to a few fine words of support. “Nothing serious will happen,” predicts another diplomat.