Spain is heading to the polls. Sánchez announces the collapse of his government and the election campaign begins

Pedro Sánchez has finally announced the collapse of his government, the end of the parliamentary term and the date of the next general election, set for 29 November. This morning’s official address was also the first speech of the election campaign, which looks set to be an extremely tough one for him.

He spoke of a crude and turbulent parliament, with the worst opposition in history, which misuses regional powers. The remark appeared to target Junts, the Catalan pro-independence party that on Friday rejected his decree on rents; however, he then broadened his critique to include the privatisation of the public health service and the purchase of expensive penthouses, referring to controversies involving Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the president of the Autonomous Community of Madrid and one of the best-known figures in the People’s Party (PP), who reacted immediately to Sánchez’s resignation by saying that today is “a special and joyful morning for Spain”.

The election campaign is expected to be tough, as the latest polls suggest that the combined votes for the PP and Vox will secure an absolute majority of seats. In 2023 as well, Sánchez lost the election; the PP defeated the PSOE, but faced with the mathematical impossibility of a right-wing government, the Socialist leader preferred not to reach out to the centre and instead formed a coalition immediately dubbed ‘Frankenstein’, as it brought together the far-left Sumar movement with Basque and Catalan regionalist and independence forces, from both the right and the left. To scrape together as many seats as possible, Sánchez even went back on his promises regarding those responsible for the 2017 Catalan secession attempt: he had said he would bring the fugitive Carles Puigdemont to justice, but instead he accepted the charade of international negotiations with a sort of foreign nation, in neutral Switzerland, where a Spanish delegation agreed with its Catalan counterpart to approve an amnesty under the watchful eye of international mediators such as the Salvadoran diplomat Francisco Galindo Vélez and the leading figure of contemporary Spanish socialism, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, whose scandals have played a major part in the government’s recent troubles.

As is well known, the amnesty did not proceed immediately due to various appeals by the Spanish courts, which not even the recent favourable ruling by the European Court of Justice was able to resolve; thus Puigdemont himself (tu quoque) delivered the final blow on Friday by voting against his own decree.

An interesting detail, noted by analysts who spent the whole weekend trying to guess what the Prime Minister would do today, is that this decree – suitably rewritten to appear as something different – can now be enacted into law. The Spanish parliament is now operating under an extended session, which in Spain is managed by a Permanent Council (Diputación permanente) with a reduced number of seats – just 69 – in which smaller parties find themselves significantly diminished and Junts carries less weight than it did in the full assembly. This procedure was not implemented during the Ceuta crisis (which Sánchez did not mention in his speech today), even though the Diputación remains active during the summer recess. Here, the Socialists have the numbers to pass the legislation, which they can then present as a victory to the electorate. Sánchez will then repeat what he said this morning: “We need a much larger majority.” He was speaking to squares packed with activists in Madrid and across the rest of Spain, where the bad weather has not prevented the demonstrations of recent days – a Spain that is preparing for a general strike, probably the first to be called not against a government but against the opposition.

The die is already cast for the two main political blocs: the right on one side and the left on the other. It remains to be seen how much the traditional parties will be able to capitalise on this – that is, how many votes the PP manages not to lose to Vox and how many votes the PSOE can take from the far left. It will be a sprint rather than a marathon, as 29 November is fast approaching, but Sánchez is known to be a force to be reckoned with on the campaign trail. He may not win, but he could at least prevent his party from suffering a crushing defeat.