Trump frightens the EU with the possibility of halting diesel exports

Brussels. Could a desperate electoral manoeuvre by Donald Trump to try to save his majority in the mid-term elections trigger a new energy crisis in the European Union? Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission yesterday expressed its “concern” over the possibility that the US president might ban diesel exports from the United States. Diesel prices have already reached record levels in the EU due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. More than 50 per cent of diesel imports into Europe come from the United States, a share that has risen considerably since Russia’s war against Ukraine. Member States lack additional refining capacity that could be rapidly deployed to convert crude oil into diesel. A US export ban would not only affect prices in Europe but also security of supply. The von der Leyen Commission does not generally comment on hypothetical scenarios or press rumours, even less so when Trump is involved. Yesterday’s carefully prepared statement is indicative of the level of alarm. “The EU views with concern the US’s alleged plans to ban diesel exports, including to the EU,” said the Commission spokesperson: “EU-US cooperation in the field of energy is strong, stable and mutually beneficial. Any disruption would risk having a negative impact on both sides.” The Commission has asked the US Administration to be consulted “before taking measures that affect shared markets”.

Several U.S. media outlets have in recent days raised the possibility that Trump might ban diesel exports. The price at the pump in the United States has exceeded $6.50 per gallon, a level almost on a par with Europe. It is also almost double what it was on the day Trump returned to the White House, and almost double what it was on the day he launched his war against Iran. For a president who had promised to bring prices down, this is a catastrophic level just six weeks before the mid-term elections. Several Republican candidates are pushing for a ban on diesel exports. “I’ve asked for it too. I said: ‘Let’s not export diesel’. We produce a lot of it. I’ve asked for it; I’ve asked my staff,” Trump said on Tuesday whilst meeting Volodymyr Zelensky in New York, adding that a decision “will come soon”. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained that the Administration is “assessing” whether an export ban “is feasible” and whether “a total or partial ban might work”. The U.S. oil industry opposes the move and is lobbying the administration. “In the ongoing debate in the United States, there are authoritative voices arguing that any proposal for a ban of this kind would actually be a very bad idea,” sources within the Commission explain. Energy Secretary Chris Wright sought to reassure industry players on Wednesday, announcing that there would be no total export ban, only restrictions. However, this partial denial has failed to convince the EU. After consulting traders, the Commission has become convinced that “Trump will go ahead with it”, an official told Il Foglio. The ban is expected to last 90 days and be designed to drive down the price of diesel a few days before the mid-term elections.

According to experts consulted by the Commission, an export ban imposed by Trump could cause prices at American petrol stations to fall by a few cents. But only for a very limited period. Refined diesel intended for Europe and Asia would be diverted into the US system, increasing domestic supply. However, US refineries would be forced to reduce their output and buy less crude oil. After a few weeks, the energy supply chain would be thrown into crisis. Diesel prices in the United States would quickly start to rise again. For the EU, this would immediately pose a problem of security of supply. And there is a paradox here: Trump committed to selling €750 billion worth of energy products to the EU as part of the tariff agreement concluded with von der Leyen in July 2025. The ban on diesel exports is “a very bad idea”, said the Commission spokesperson, in a rare criticism directed at Trump: “We believe it could have a negative impact on both sides. We are raising this issue with our US counterparts at the highest levels”.