Trump’s push for a possible deal with Tehran

Tel Aviv. “We have a lot of momentum,” said US President Donald Trump at the end of Tuesday’s diplomatic session in New York. The reference is to the possible agreement with Tehran, following the three-hour talks that envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held with Iranian representatives. “No one wants to, or can afford to, continue this war. Not even Iran, which is why Trump is trying to pursue the diplomatic route as far as possible,” Helit Barel, director of the Israeli National Security Council and an expert on security and diplomatic relations between Israel and the United States, told Il Foglio. This time, Trump’s optimism could also describe the attempt to rebuild a regional architecture that in recent months seemed on the verge of collapsing. On Tuesday, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman), alongside Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria: twelve Middle Eastern countries brought together by the White House to discuss Iran, regional security, energy and, above all, the ‘day after’, with a proposal to Arab allies for an initial fund of ten billion dollars to build energy infrastructure capable of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

“The region is in a state of constant transition,” says Yaakov Katz, an Israeli-American journalist and former editor of the Jerusalem Post, who specialises in defence and relations between Israel and the United States, “and now Trump’s priority, on the eve of the mid-term elections, is economic stability – both at home and abroad.” Just a week ago, Riyadh was questioning the strength of Washington’s support, whilst the Mecca Pact with Turkey and Pakistan was showing its limitations in the face of ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi civilians and oil infrastructure – infrastructure essential for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz in the distribution of gas to the rest of the world. The US is attempting to transform the crisis of recent months into a new regional order, with Washington at the centre as coordinator, the Arab countries called upon to assume greater responsibility, and the ‘Start-up Nation’, behind the scenes, as an indispensable military and technological power.

Although Israel was conspicuously absent from Tuesday’s talks, Benjamin Netanyahu will arrive in New York today for one of the shortest visits to the US of his career: he will address the General Assembly and return immediately to Tel Aviv, whilst Trump will already have returned to the White House. So no endorsement, despite the imminent general election in Israel, scheduled for 27 October: a scheduling discrepancy that does not necessarily equate to a strategic rift. According to Noah Slepkov, a senior researcher at the Jewish People Policy Institute and founder of theMadad, who is in charge of election polls for Channel 13, “the United States is relying on Israel to bring an end to a conflict in which it does not wish to become bogged down, especially with the election just around the corner. At the same time, even without any official endorsement, Bibi could secure recognition as the architect of diplomatic progress with the Saudis: whilst he has so far failed to achieve any ‘total victory’, this could, if nothing else, amount to a diplomatic victory”.

“Netanyahu is preparing to address the shortest United Nations General Assembly in history,” concludes Udi Sommer, director of the School of Political Science and International Relations at Tel Aviv University. “When he takes to the podium, he will in all likelihood find himself facing a half-empty hall. A powerful image, reflecting an equally stark political reality. His speech will be tailored not so much for the international audience as almost exclusively for the domestic one, with the aim of rallying his electoral base in Israel. Whilst, at the same time – through a long-term strategy with which, for now, he continues to succeed – he seeks to consolidate Israel’s integration into the broader geopolitical architecture of the Middle East.” So, whilst political normalisation between Riyadh and Jerusalem remains apparently at a standstill, strategic normalisation continues to advance, with Trump’s America no longer willing to act as the policeman who intervenes at every call, but rather as the architect of a new geopolitical structure. One in which everyone must play their part.