In Sudan, the United States is backing those fighting the RSF, which has been accused of genocide.

Five years on from the coup that brought Sudan under the control of military leaders, the United States has realised it prefers civilians to be in power. In a statement with a surprising tone, on Tuesday night the White House officially delegitimised Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman Burhan, the only Sudanese leader recognised by the international community: “Neither the Sudanese Armed Forces, nor the Rapid Support Forces (RSF, ed.), nor their respective leaders represent a legitimate and constitutional government for Sudan,” said Thomas Pigott, Donald Trump’s spokesperson. It is necessary to “engage in an inclusive political dialogue leading to a transition to a civilian government”, he added. A neutral stance that is only apparent. 

The appeal would be worthy of support, were it not for the fact that, in the meantime, one of the two warring parties – the RSF, led by Commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – has been accused by the UN of the heinous crime of genocide following the massacre of civilians in El Fasher, in North Darfur, which took place last year, whilst Burhan, as the sole legitimate leader, was instead expected to attend the General Assembly in New York. But in an unprecedented move, the President of the Transitional Sovereign Council now risks missing the event, where he was due to deliver a very harsh speech against the United Arab Emirates, the RSF’s main sponsor and a key partner of the Trump administration. On Tuesday, Washington issued an ultimatum to Burhan: either he accepts the three-month ceasefire proposed by the Americans, or he will not be granted a visa to enter the United States and attend the UN General Assembly. This is an unprecedented act of blackmail, which has also been condemned by the United Nations.

The latest developments introduced by the Trump Administration into the diplomatic process in Sudan risk bringing an end to any prospect of dialogue between Burhan and Dagalo, because, in essence, the White House statement effectively recognises a regime change in Khartoum. As an immediate consequence, yesterday Saudi Arabia threatened to leave the Quad—the group of countries involved in the peace dialogue, of which Riyadh is a member alongside Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the United States—should a visa not be granted to the Sudanese leader. In practice, however, the dialogue group is already defunct, and a parallel group has emerged that does not include the United States and the UAE, which are now considered, to all intents and purposes, active parties in the Sudanese conflict. Thus, yesterday, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, the Saudis met with representatives from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey. “We emphasise the importance of preserving legitimate national state institutions,” read the final statement issued by the four countries.

While it is true that the United States has long been accused of defending the RSF and the United Arab Emirates, it is equally true that the situation has escalated more than ever in recent weeks, and Washington’s decisions have ultimately led to a direct confrontation with Burhan. Just ten days ago, following press reports alleging the presence of chemical weapons in Khartoum in 2024 – without, however, even suggesting their use in warfare – the United States called for thorough investigations. This is a request that Burhan disputes, because the journalistic investigations – published simultaneously in the New York Times and the Washington Post, both citing the same ‘Middle Eastern intelligence source’ which many suspect to be none other than Abu Dhabi – presented photographic evidence whose authenticity has yet to be verified. Around the same time, Washington also proposed extending the arms embargo to cover the whole of Sudan, rather than just Darfur, so as to target Burhan as well. The proposal was ultimately shelved due to firm opposition from all other members of the Security Council, but the United States has argued that, as it stands today, the embargo is not working.

To be honest, however, if one looks at military developments on the ground, something does seem to be happening. In recent months, the RSF has seen mass desertions, with many fighters switching sides to join the Khartoum Armed Forces. In August, in one of the most striking cases, Abubakr Hamouda Dahloub, head of RSF intelligence in North Kordofan state, defected, taking weapons and hundreds of men with him. Many other commanders followed suit, including Hamad Mohammad Hamad Khalifa, the governor of North Kordofan who had been appointed by Dagalo. “There is a total inability to meet even the most basic humanitarian needs of the people of Kordofan and Darfur,” Khalifa admitted in a television interview in which he announced that he had switched allegiance to the Sudanese Armed Forces. According to the ACLED platform, which monitors the development of armed conflicts, the wave of mutinies within the RSF is already facilitating the advance of the regular Sudanese Armed Forces. Hence Burhan’s refusal to yield to US demands for a ceasefire at this very moment.