The CDU suffers a crushing defeat in the regional elections, but Merz presses ahead with the reforms

Berlin. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffered a crushing defeat in both regional elections held yesterday in two federal states: the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the capital’s federal state of Berlin. In immediate post-election comments, even before the exit polls were released, Merz spoke of a “disaster” suffered in Mecklenburg and an extremely difficult situation in Berlin (a change of governor just a few weeks before the vote following a scandal). However, he emphasised that he would press ahead with reforms as the only way to get Germany back on its feet. The CDU has effectively lost its status as a people’s party, a title immediately claimed by the leader of the far-right AfD, Alice Weidel, who declared that the Chancellor “must” face the consequences – that is, resign.

According to initial projections, the far-left Die Linke party is set to triumph in Berlin, led by Elif Eralp – the daughter of Turkish refugees – who staked her entire election campaign on the capital’s housing crisis and astronomical rents, placing the expropriation of properties owned by property giants at the top of her manifesto. This involves around 240,000 flats. Economic experts, however, argue that expropriation would cost billions in compensation – more than it would yield – and would risk driving away the already scarce investors in the capital. They argue that a housing construction plan to build new homes would be a better option. Die Linke came first with 25.8 per cent, a jump of over 13 percentage points compared with the previous election (12.2 per cent).

For frontrunner Eralp, the path appears clear to the post of Minister-President, or Governor, in Berlin, likely in a coalition with the SPD and the Greens (red-red-green). The CDU, which has led the state government until now, comes second with 20 per cent, a drop of over 8 percentage points, whilst the SPD, hitherto the CDU’s junior coalition partner in the regional government, stands at 12 per cent (down from 18.4 per cent). The AfD reaches 13.8 per cent, an increase of around 4 percentage points (from 9.1 per cent). The Greens secured 15.4 per cent (18.4 per cent). The BSW party, a left-wing party that flirts with the AfD and, like the far right, is pro-Russian and opposed to aid for Ukraine, secured 5 per cent.

In Mecklenburg, the popular SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig has failed to secure her party’s position as the leading party, but has staged a strong comeback in recent days compared with the polls and stands at 36 per cent (down from 39.6 per cent). As was the case in the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 November, the AfD came first with 37.9 per cent, more than double its previous share (16.7 per cent). However, it will not be able to form a government because no other party is willing to enter into a coalition with it. Schwesig has already announced that she will lead the next governing coalition (until now she had been governing in coalition with Die Linke).

In practical terms, the regional election confirmed the CDU’s downward spiral, accompanied by a rise in support for the AfD and, in Berlin, for Die Linke as well; the centre is generally declining or collapsing, whilst the far-right parties are gaining ground. The CDU has paid the price for widespread discontent over the federal government’s reforms and Chancellor Merz’s dismal popularity ratings; however, Merz had already announced in recent days that he would not throw in the towel and that he intended to press ahead with the reform programme that Germany so desperately needs. Without even waiting for the projections, immediately after the first exit polls, Merz – who had summoned the party leadership to his office – acknowledged the disastrous defeat in Mecklenburg (it remained unclear until the very end whether the party would clear the 5 per cent threshold) and took responsibility for it. But he emphasised at the same time that there is no alternative to the reforms. The task now requires “a strong backbone, resolve and patience”, he said: “I will have these qualities as leader of the CDU and Chancellor of our country”.