In Strasbourg, the Canadian Carney offers the EU a geopolitical alliance that is not merely economic

Strasbourg. “No one will tell us what language to speak, and no one will dictate our culture or with whom we can enter into agreements,” said Mark Carney in response to Donald Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs if the European Union and Canada go ahead with their plan to form an unprecedented alliance. “If they do that, if I consider this to be a hostile act, I will impose very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many goods,” said the US president, after Ursula von der Leyen had proposed on Wednesday that Canada become the EU’s first “associate member”. Carney does not like this term either. In a speech to the European Parliament, the Canadian Prime Minister emphasised another phrase: “Alliance for the Future”. A geopolitical alliance, as well as an economic one.

The ‘Alliance for the Future’ is designed to tackle ‘a fierce storm’ caused by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, with the members strengthening one another through their complementary strengths. ‘A single tree will fall. A forest will not,’ said Carney, addressing an enthusiastic audience of MEPs. “I am not proposing a third bloc to become a rival superpower, merely one that acts in a more civilised manner. We do not seek power to dominate others. Quite the contrary. We are pursuing resilience so that no one can control our open markets, undermine our sovereignty, threaten our territorial integrity or erode our freedoms, our democracies and our rule of law,” said Carney. Beyond the political dimension, the Canadian Prime Minister outlined his economic proposal. “We must aim for barrier-free, digital trade in non-agricultural goods and a wide range of services,” he said. “We must strengthen the ties between our peoples, enabling young people to live, work and study wherever they wish, on both sides of the Atlantic.” Canada could join the Erasmus student exchange and Horizon research programmes. Canada offers a solution to the EU’s vulnerabilities: “It possesses deposits of over 34 critical minerals and ranks among the leading producers of the ten minerals most essential to the global energy transition,” Carney pointed out. “Canada can supply LNG and hydrogen on a large scale to support European energy security, including through the development and use of new port infrastructure in the far north and on the east coast.” In return, Canada is asking to be able to “benefit from your leadership in many clean energy technologies”. Carney sees the potential to “pool new sovereign computing capabilities and establish more secure broadband connections between Europe and Asia”, to “join forces to develop security protocols for AI” and to create “an integrated financial services market”.

The proposed “Alliance for the Future” between the EU and Canada is in its infancy and is set to face a number of obstacles, not just Trump. An EU-Canada summit will take place in Ottawa at the end of October to kick off negotiations. However, some EU member states have already criticised von der Leyen for failing to consult them beforehand on the offer of “associate membership” for Canada. The German Chancellor’s spokesperson, Friedrich Merz, immediately called for the terminology to be changed. Countries that support the ‘Made in Europe’ principle in EU policies – such as France – want to maintain this preference for member states. Other countries believe that offering Canada “associate member” status would undermine the cause of enlargement and encourage “free riding”: reaping almost all the benefits of the EU without having to meet the obligations in terms of regulation or financial contributions. The entire Brexit negotiation with the United Kingdom has hinged – and continues to hinge – on this delicate balance. Canada, too, has its own red lines: Carney has excluded agricultural products from his proposal to deepen the current CETA free trade agreement, and the free movement of people across the Atlantic would not apply to everyone, but only to young people.

Carney has assured that the vast majority of Canadians are in favour of closer ties with the EU. But public opinion can change and stand in the way. Parties on the far right and far left, as well as those advocating sovereignty, are opposed. Ten EU member states – including Italy, France and Poland – have not yet ratified CETA due to internal opposition, despite the fact that it has brought enormous benefits to their exports. Carney is sceptical about the term ‘associate member’ of the EU – ‘the precise terminology for Europe is a matter for Europe’, because ‘what matters is the substance’, said the Prime Minister – as he is aware of the sensitivity of Canadian citizens and elected representatives regarding their national sovereignty. “There will be debates and there will be a vote in the Canadian Parliament,” Carney assured. But the Canadian Prime Minister wants to move quickly. “Just as domination is the arrogance of the hegemon, perfection is the enemy of the good,” Carney warned. Will the Europeans listen to him?