In Sweden, the centre-left wins and the far right loses votes

After a night spent counting the ballot papers, by 6 am on Monday, the count had been completed in 99 per cent of the constituencies. In Sweden, the centre-left parties are set to win 176 seats in parliament, whilst the centre-right parties are set to win 173 – one seat short of an absolute majority. However, the final result will not be known until Wednesday, as in Sweden the ‘one per cent’ is much larger and more complicated than one might think: postal votes and the second count of ballot papers are still to be included.

For the leader of the Social Democrats, Magdalena Andersson, this is a success: her party has received the most votes and, what is more, has a lead of almost eight percentage points over the Moderate Party. The challenge now will be to reach a coalition agreement with the Left (8.1 per cent), the Greens (6.2 per cent) and the Centrists (7.1 per cent). Meanwhile, Magdalena Andersson has sought to set the record straight with potential allies: “We Social Democrats will always be ready to shoulder our responsibilities (...) for the time being, we are in the lead. And if this result is confirmed, then Sweden will have a new government. But all the votes must be counted.” To secure an absolute majority, the Social Democrats would need the support of all the parties in the bloc, but the Centre and the Left hold divergent views, particularly on economic issues, and the Centre has already stated that it does not wish to form a government with the Left. The solution could therefore be a minority government – not uncommon in Swedish political tradition – led by the Social Democrats. With such a narrow margin, the parliamentary term is unlikely to be a straightforward one.

Despite losing the election, the outgoing Prime Minister and leader of the Moderates, Ulf Kristersson, can still be satisfied: compared with 2022, his party increased its share of the vote (rising from 19.1 per cent to 19.9 per cent) and, above all, outperformed the far-right party (the Sweden Democrats), which fell from 20.5 per cent to 17.6 per cent. In the public debate, the fight against crime and the crackdown on immigration had lost the central role they had played in the previous election campaign, and the external support for the Kristersson government did not go down well with part of the electorate.