Russia was attempting to test a new weapon in the Arctic but was stopped. The new deterrent

Brussels. Mark Rutte yesterday expressed NATO’s solidarity with Germany following the failed Russian attack on Leipzig airport. “Russia’s actions are a sign of weakness and a symptom of its failure to assert itself in Ukraine,” said the NATO Secretary-General in Berlin, assuring that the Atlantic Alliance would continue to “strengthen” its deterrence capabilities. How? Attributing responsibility for the attacks is part of the evolution of NATO’s deterrence doctrine. Yesterday, Reuters revealed that Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States had prevented the Russian navy from conducting exercises in the Arctic involving a new weapon designed to sabotage undersea cables. The operation to flush out Russia in the Arctic took place last spring off the coast of the Svalbard archipelago, a group of islands in the northernmost part of Norway, considered the northernmost inhabited lands on the planet. According to Reuters, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States intercepted several Russian submarines engaged in an exercise involving the use of a secret weapon, designed to disable critical submarine cables without leaving any trace. The operation by NATO allies made it possible to locate and engage the Russian submarines at sea, preventing them from completing their exercises until they left the area. Two fibre-optic submarine cables connect Svalbard to the mainland, also carrying satellite data downloaded to a station that is part of the NASA network. The cables were not damaged.

On 9 April, Norway had issued a statement regarding the operation with the United Kingdom against Russia’s clandestine activities (though without the details revealed by Reuters, including the new Russian technology for sabotaging cables). Oslo had publicly attributed the operation to Guci, the Russian directorate responsible for underwater warfare operations involving deep-sea submarines. Russia was accused of “developing capabilities to map – and potentially sabotage – critical infrastructure at significant depths”. The United States’ involvement had not been made public. “Through our joint operation, we have sent a clear message to Russia: it cannot act in secret,” said the Norwegian Defence Minister, Tore Sandvik. The two countries then informed Moscow that they were aware of the new weapon. “We have made it unequivocally clear to the Russian authorities that any attempt to target our critical infrastructure will be detected and will face consequences,” reads the statement dated 9 April.

At a time when the intelligence services of several Western countries fear that Russia may be seeking to test NATO’s Article 5, the fact that certain officials have made public, via Reuters, the details of what occurred in Svalbard appears to be yet another message to Moscow. NATO’s deterrence is based on military capabilities, the credibility of a potential response in the event of an attack, and communication with the adversary. Yet the doctrine designed for armed conflict is ill-suited to hybrid attacks. Until a few months ago, the allies had been reluctant to publicly attribute covert operations to Russia, partly because of the fragility of the evidence and partly because of the risk of escalation. Last autumn was marked by a series of drone overflights at airports in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany and Belgium. All the evidence pointed to Moscow as being responsible. But neither any allied government nor NATO had gone so far as to attribute the operations to Russia. The incident in Leipzig marks the first time that Germany has explicitly implicated Moscow. Rutte has so far discouraged the use of the consultations provided for under Article 4 of the Alliance’s treaty, because invoking it forms part of a range of responses that must be graded and calibrated. In the Secretary-General’s view, invoking Article 4 too frequently would undermine its credibility. However, in NATO’s deterrence strategy, attributing hybrid attacks serves to make it clear to the Kremlin that it will not be allowed to act with impunity. Through its reckless actions, “Russia wants to divide us, but we stand united. Russia wants to prevent us from helping Ukraine, but we will do more for Ukraine,” Rutte said yesterday. Germany’s decision to send more Patriot interceptors and further military aid to Kyiv following the Leipzig summit is also part of this deterrence strategy.