The UK can lead NATO in the war of the future, says Petraeus

Every generation is tempted to believe that its challenges are unprecedented. Sometimes, however, a generation is right. I believe ours is one of those generations. (...) The United Kingdom now has the opportunity to demonstrate this very quality once again. Just as it helped to lead the Alliance in recognising the strategic implications of Russian aggression, it can now help to lead the Alliance in recognising the revolutionary implications that Ukraine represents for the very future of warfare. (...) The United States is investing heavily in emerging capabilities, and these investments are necessary, though not sufficient. No nation will secure a lasting strategic advantage simply by acquiring better technologies. Nor has the United States yet developed the new, revolutionary concept of war that this moment demands, let alone initiated the far-reaching changes that this entails in terms of the structure of the armed forces, organisation, training, leadership development, procurement and personnel. (...) Every major defence institution must be re-examined in the light of the new concept of war. The way we organise our forces, develop leaders, train units, acquire capabilities, engage with industry, nurture technological talent, and gather and apply lessons learnt in the field – all of this will have to evolve in tandem. None of this will be easy. Political leaders will have to challenge long-held assumptions; military leaders will have to rethink the organisations and structures of the armed forces that have functioned successfully for generations; procurement systems will have to keep pace with technological progress; and industrial capacity, innovation, education and national resilience will all have to be regarded as elements of national security. Our primary priority, therefore, should not simply be the acquisition of new technologies, however crucial they may be. Our primary priority should be the development of an entirely new concept of warfare. Only then will we be able to identify the institutional changes required to implement it successfully. (...)

Ukraine is the military testing ground par excellence of the 21st century. Much of the discussion has understandably focused on individual technologies: unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, electronic warfare, cyber capabilities, precision strikes, battlefield management systems and more. Each of these is important. But the main lesson is broader: the very concept of war is changing. (...)

The most significant military transformations rarely begin with new equipment. They begin with new ideas. Additional resources will clearly be needed in key areas, but the greatest obstacle to transformation is rarely money alone. More often than not, it is the difficulty of challenging entrenched assumptions and overcoming institutional inertia. And I believe that the United Kingdom is in an exceptionally favourable position to do just that. Not because the UK is free from serious economic, fiscal or political constraints – which it clearly is not – but because, as we have seen in Ukraine, the UK has demonstrated the ability to recognise strategic realities promptly and to act decisively. This now offers the UK a further opportunity: to become the first major Western nation to organise its defence institutions around the new concept of warfare that Ukraine first introduced, and, in so doing, to help lead the transformation of NATO itself. NATO must now rekindle that spirit, with far greater urgency, by developing a common understanding of the new concept of warfare and the institutional transformation that follows from it. And NATO’s operational headquarters will have to think, organise and operate differently if they are to successfully lead this transformation. (...)

The question is not whether this transformation will take place. It is already underway, most clearly in Ukraine, but also in Russia, the Middle East and elsewhere. The question is whether we will be the ones to lead it, or whether we will be forced to play catch-up with those who are already doing so.