Democrat Talarico has far more money than his rival, who is waiting for Trump’s help.

Donald Trump had been warned by Republican senators: if he decided to back Attorney General Ken Paxton rather than Senator John Cornyn in the Texas primaries – as he subsequently did – he would have to spend a great deal of his own money to remedy the candidate’s fundraising difficulties. With just over two months to go before the election, this money has still not materialised, and the Democratic candidate for the Senate, State Representative James Talarico, has far more funds at his disposal. According to an analysis by the Wall Street Journal, Talarico has raised $68 million compared to Paxton’s mere $9 million. He spent August touring various locations in Massachusetts and New York, where admission tickets to meet him ranged from $500 to $13,500. He has also hired an adviser to Senator Cornyn, who, meanwhile, has stated that he would not be raising funds on Paxton’s behalf. The race is described as ‘too close to call’ and some pollsters even see the Democrats as favourites to win.

Paxton’s main strength is the president’s unwavering support; on Thursday, the president attended a fundraising event in Houston, where he stated that he would help the attorney general and would spend a great deal of time in Texas. It is true that Trump has around half a billion dollars at his disposal from Super PACs – the fundraising groups linked to him that can raise unlimited sums of money – but these funds must be distributed amongst all the campaigns in the balance and cannot be earmarked solely for Texas. So far, Talarico has dominated the television airwaves and spent $31.5 million on advertising, compared with just $4.7 million from the Republicans. In doing so, he has managed to build name recognition amongst voters that he did not have as a mere state representative. Precisely to counterbalance this disparity, Lone Star Liberty PAC, a Super PAC close to Paxton, purchased advertising space worth $15 million yesterday to air adverts over the next two weeks.

Some Republican strategists are preaching optimism, arguing that it is normal for the Democratic candidate to rise in the polls over the summer as he makes himself known, and that the figures will shift significantly once Paxton begins attacking Talarico on television. Their strategy is to portray him as a left-wing extremist who does not reflect Texas’s values: Paxton even attacks his masculinity, calling him ‘Low T-Talarico’, in reference to his alleged lack of testosterone. Furthermore, he has accused him of being close to China, as some time ago Talarico had spoken out against a law banning the sale of state-owned property to individuals and organisations from China and other countries deemed a threat to national security. Talarico has hit back at this claim, accusing Paxton of having travelled to China alongside other attorneys-general in 2019. Meanwhile, Republicans are facing considerable difficulties with voters, particularly regarding the construction of new data centres in rural areas and the state of the economy – issues they must continue to defend despite the fact that the majority of citizens hold a different view.

Against this favourable backdrop, Talarico has also begun spending money on negative advertising against his opponent. An advert has been broadcast accusing Paxton of being corrupt, recalling the impeachment proceedings for corruption and abuse of office voted for by members of his own party in the House of Representatives (from which he was subsequently acquitted in the Senate). Furthermore, a video has appeared on the Democrat’s social media channels recalling an incident from around ten years ago: in a Dallas court, Paxton had taken – by his own account, by mistake – a Montblanc pen worth a thousand dollars, which belonged to another lawyer. Caught on CCTV, he returned it. The pen’s rightful owner stated in the advertisement that he would be voting for Talarico, as Paxton is “the sort of man who steals your pen”.

Despite these advantages, Talarico’s challenge remains complex: he must win in a state where the Democrats have not won a state-level election for three decades and where, in 2024, Trump secured one and a half million more votes than Kamala Harris. Republican strategist Karl Rove stated on Fox News that Trump must decide whether or not to spend the money from his Super PACs. If he does, it will even the playing field; if not, it could be a difficult night for the Republicans in Texas.