The Netherlands and Norway: two different models of energy transition

There are two ways of approaching climate policy: making emissions reduction an absolute objective, to be pursued regardless of costs and context; or taking economic, energy and geopolitical constraints into account. The Netherlands and Norway have, in recent days, taken decisions that clearly illustrate this difference in approach. Historically, both are producers of fossil fuels. However, whilst Amsterdam is reaffirming – and indeed radicalising – its target to reduce gas extraction, Oslo does not want to miss the opportunity to consolidate its position.

The Netherlands’ success with gas is linked to the Groningen field, the largest in Europe: between 1959, when it came on stream, and 2023, when operations were suspended, it produced around 2,200 billion cubic metres of gas. The decision to close it is not due to the field being depleted, as it is estimated to contain at least another 500 billion cubic metres of recoverable methane (roughly one and a half times the EU’s total gas consumption last year). Nor is it driven by climate concerns, although it has, of course, been seized upon by environmental groups. The fact is that, from the 1980s onwards, residents in the Groningen area began to feel seismic tremors, attributed to extraction activities: although these were events of limited magnitude (the majority below 1.5 on the Richter scale), they led to growing political pressure, ultimately resulting in the closure. A further step has now been taken: the government has decided to cement the wells shut, rendering them permanently inoperable. Meanwhile, Dutch storage facilities are currently around 45 per cent full, a long way from the 90 per cent target deemed necessary to get through the winter without any worries (in the past, Groningen’s own production flexibility almost made stockpiling unnecessary).

Norway, on the other hand, is not choosing between decarbonisation and fossil fuels: it intends to pursue the former resolutely, without relinquishing its central role in supplying the latter. Having increased oil and gas production to record levels, the government has announced that it will allow drilling in the Barents Sea. “In the current geopolitical and security environment,” said Energy Minister Terje Aasland, “and given the state of resources, I believe that continuing activities in the Barents Sea serves the interests of both Norway and Europe.” Today, Oslo is the EU’s largest gas supplier, accounting for around 30 per cent of imports. Nevertheless, Brussels has long been pushing for a moratorium on Arctic drilling, which has not yet been approved. The Norwegian government points out that, whilst the Commission’s papers promise a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, in practice national governments are pushing to secure supplies, because demand cannot be abolished by decree. “We will develop these areas,” said Aasland, “and we will see if the EU declares a moratorium on oil and gas purchases.”

The contrast is striking: whilst Amsterdam intends to bind future governments to the current decision, declaring the permanent end of Groningen, Oslo is combining its decarbonisation policies with realism. The prevailing view is that, in any realistic scenario, we will continue to need oil and gas, albeit to a lesser extent than today. The comparison highlights two approaches to the transition: prioritising decarbonisation above all else, or balancing it with energy security and the optimal use of available resources.

There is also another paradox. Both the Netherlands and Norway are environmentally conscious nations, so much so that they are often held up as role models. The Netherlands is the European leader in solar power, with 1,494 watts of capacity per capita in 2025 (more than double Italy’s 676); globally, only Australia does better (1,494 W). Norway, for its part, leads the way in electric cars, with around 97 per cent of new registrations in the first half of 2026 (compared with around 8 per cent in Italy). Yet, in terms of emissions actually released into the atmosphere, the average Italian (5.1 tonnes of CO₂ per year) produces less than both their Dutch (6.3 tonnes) and Norwegian (6.7 tonnes) counterparts. Of course, these are different countries, with different climates and societies. But environmental performance is also measured by results.