The disaster in Tibet and the crisis of confidence

The death toll from Wednesday’s flooding in Nepal and Tibet is set to rise dramatically: official figures currently put the number of missing at 1,500 and the death toll at over 500, but rescue operations are being hampered by fears of further flooding, collapsing dams and further inundations. Setting aside the differing methods of recording deaths (China has confirmed only five so far, on the Tibetan side which Beijing insists on calling Xizang, in order to erase Tibetan identity—bit by bit—even linguistically), the pattern emerging in the days following the disaster is in some ways reminiscent of the communication strategy seen during the pandemic: the downplaying of the situation through figures, the glorification of the leadership’s effectiveness, and the staunch defence against any accusation of responsibility.

The most insidious controversy for China does not concern the geological cause – on which there is broad scientific consensus – but the handling of information: if the landslide had occurred on Tibetan territory and first struck the Chinese Gyirong Pass (which had already been heavily damaged last year by a flood), Beijing had a window of opportunity, however brief, to alert Nepal downstream. The silence during those crucial minutes is what fuels the suspicions, just as happened in the early weeks of the Wuhan outbreak. Responsibility in this case is not one-sided: Nepal, too, lacks an adequate cross-border early-warning system, despite having been aware for years of the risk posed by Tibetan glacial lakes, and the absence of a structured bilateral protocol is a problem for both governments, not just Beijing. But Nepal is a fragile country; it is not the world’s second-largest power. And it is always this pattern of poor transparency and low trust that gives rise to accusations against China – accusations which, in recent days, have also extended to China’s mega-hydroelectric projects in the Himalayas, which some observers suspect of altering the region’s hydrogeological balance.