The new standoff between Syria and Israel is on nuclear power

The IDF’s attack on the Syrian base at Abu al-Duhur on Tuesday morning has had repercussions set to affect the standoff between the Turks and the Israelis. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government stated on X that Israel had warned Damascus of the dangers of a “deployment of Turkish troops in Syria”. Ahmed al Sharaa, however, is said to have “chosen to ignore these warnings”, “allowing the Turks to deploy at a base near Aleppo”. What matters most was the sharp reaction from some US officials – reported by Axios – all of whom came out in defence of Damascus, “which has taken no hostile action against Israel”.

Whilst it is true that Ankara, too, shows no genuine interest in respecting Syrian sovereignty – dozens of bases across the country have been hosting thousands of Turkish troops for months, and Abu al-Duhur was certainly no exception – it is equally true that Washington regards the Israeli aggression as unprovoked. This is particularly so in light of the conciliatory steps taken by al Sharaa in recent months: from the open struggle against Hezbollah and Iran, to the creation of a military command centre based in Amman, Jordan – which, however, the Israelis have never wanted to make operational, according to American reports. IDF ground and air incursions into Syria, on the other hand, have been on the rise, both in the south and across the rest of the country. To the extent that, US sources tell Axios, “some Syrians are beginning to wonder whether it might be better to change their stance and respond to the Israeli attacks”.

So far, Damascus has been careful not to take any military action, but on Tuesday evening, the visit to Syria by Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), provided an opportunity to respond to Netanyahu. Grossi had been invited to inspect “several tonnes of radioactive material” inherited from the Assad regime. Among the sites inspected by the inspectors was al-Kibar, in the eastern province of Deir Ezzour, which was bombed in 2007 by the Israelis to thwart Assad’s nuclear ambitions, as he had begun collaborating with North Korean technicians. According to the IAEA, there may still be a hidden depot there known as ‘Site 99’, containing further radioactive material that needs to be secured and which will remain, at least for now, under Syrian sovereignty. Israel has monitored Site 99 for years and, immediately after the regime’s fall, bombed the access routes to prevent the uranium from falling into the wrong hands. A few weeks ago, the Israelis detected movements in the area which led them to suspect that the Syrians, with Turkish assistance, are attempting to seize the nuclear material. Speaking at a press conference alongside Grossi, Damascus’s Foreign Minister, Asaad al Shaibani, affirmed Syria’s “sovereign and legal right” to pursue a peaceful nuclear programme and stated that Syria has the right to use nuclear energy “for civilian and peaceful purposes”. It is unlikely that those in Jerusalem will be too inclined to trust this.