European alternatives and opportunities for Kyiv’s missile defence

For several weeks now, Ukraine’s missile defence capabilities have been the focus of attention. The pressure exerted by Russian ballistic missile attacks, on the one hand, and the depletion of US stocks due to the war in Iran, on the other, have led to a shortage of interceptor missiles for the 17 Patriot batteries currently deployed in Ukraine. This explains why President Zelensky recently appealed to Western countries to allow Ukraine to make use of part of their stocks (for example, in countries such as Greece or Spain). The US system appears to be in crisis, unable to guarantee the security of its partners, and doubts remain about the political reliability of the presidency, which has taken a wavering stance on the possibility of granting Ukraine a licence to produce Patriot interceptors. To address this situation, various initiatives are underway aimed at meeting the needs for the protection of Ukrainian airspace, ranging from the modernisation of S-300 systems to the development of a domestically produced missile defence system by the company Fire Point. In this regard, it should be noted that the creation of the European consortium Blixem Exo (comprising Safran, MBDA, Airbus, Thales and the Swiss firm Destinus) has recently been announced, with the aim of supplying a new medium-range missile interception system. There are no immediate alternatives to fill the US void, a situation that is extremely painful for Ukraine. However, this stalemate is prompting European actors to take action, not least in view of the financial opportunities offered by the 90 billion loan granted by the EU to support Kyiv, a crucial instrument.

During the latest meeting of the “coalition of the willing” in Paris on 13 July, it was announced that Kyiv would be supplied with four batteries of the new-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T anti-missile system, whose performance is comparable to, if not superior to, that of the Patriot. Plans were also made for the licensed production of Aster 30 missiles, intended to equip these systems. It appears that France is about to dispatch two ‘classic’ SAMP/T systems immediately; these will supplement the systems already deployed and will then be returned as soon as the new-generation (NG) systems are delivered to Ukraine. The use of these systems in the context of the conflict represents a test bed of considerable importance for European missile defence. Some sources indicate that an NG system has already been undergoing testing by the Ukrainians for several weeks. This also presents a commercial opportunity, given that the war in Iran has created a surge in demand for missile defence systems, whilst US production capacity appears to be particularly strained. Thales’s chairman, Patrice Caine, recently highlighted the company’s ability to supply customers with SAMP/T NG systems as early as 2028. This logic of commercial opportunity is reflected in Italy’s promotion of Leonardo’s ‘Michelangelo Dome’ air and missile defence system, which is now presented as integrated with MBDA’s SAMP/T anti-missile component and is due to be demonstrated in Ukraine this autumn. Until a few years ago, the SAMP/T system was a bilateral ‘crown jewel’ for the exclusive use of Italy’s own armed forces. Now, however, it represents a genuine industrial opportunity stemming from strategic necessity – a trend confirmed by an initial order from Denmark in April, as well as interest from other countries such as Switzerland. Momentum is building.

During the latest Franco-German Defence Council meeting, held on 17 July, France put forward a proposal for cooperation with Germany on the SAMP/T NG system. The prospect of an agreement with Germany, or even Germany’s potential entry into the production consortium, would represent a significant step. This illustrates, first and foremost, a shift in the perception of the strategic landscape: until recently, Berlin had remained steadfast in its loyalty to American systems. Today, US political and industrial unreliability is opening up avenues that, until recently, seemed completely closed. Furthermore, an agreement with the Germans – who are already part of MBDA’s structure, both through the shareholder Airbus and via a German subsidiary – would usher in a new European approach and offer a revival of Franco-German cooperation, which is timely following the failure of the sixth-generation FCAS fighter. This approach would also bolster an Italian-German relationship already characterised by the partnership between Leonardo and Rheinmetall. MBDA, whose shareholders are BAE Systems, Airbus and Leonardo, is therefore at the heart of this renewal of European capabilities, a position further strengthened by the bilateral nature of the SAMP/T programme. It is also worth noting that the French and Italian armed forces have both ordered eight new-generation SAMP/T systems, a joint commitment of great symbolic significance. The growth of these initiatives therefore represents a highly valuable synergy that benefits all parties. However, there are also differences: Thales has developed its own air and missile defence system centred on the new Ground Fire 300 radar, integrating the SAMP/T – an approach replicated by Leonardo, which features its own radar in the ‘Michelangelo Dome’. These developments are not only legitimate but often necessary to ensure the desirable redundancy of critical systems. After all, Thales and Leonardo’s defence electronics division are companies that have always enjoyed rather good relations and which, for example, are co-shareholders in the Rome-based Elettronica (ELT) Group. An interesting European dynamic is therefore unfolding – a blend of cooperation and competition – which appears capable of taking significant steps towards achieving greater strategic autonomy by mobilising the various industrial bases.