The CIA has set up a task force for Cuba. The aim is to undermine the regime in the long term

After classifying Cuba as ‘Priority 1’ in the National Intelligence Priorities Framework – on a par with China, Iran and Russia – the CIA has set up a task force dedicated exclusively to the island. This is a unit whose existence was intended to remain secret, but which was revealed on Wednesday in an article in The New York Times.

According to the newspaper, the unit has the power to rapidly redirect funds, personnel and technical support to Cuba, and comprises case officers, analysts, cyber operations specialists and experts in covert influence. Its stated aim is reportedly ‘to create divisions within the Cuban political elite and to facilitate the replacement of the most intransigent officials with more pragmatic figures willing to negotiate’. The unit’s mandate, however, has specific limitations, unlike the other task force the CIA had set up for Cuba in 1960: it is not authorised to carry out lethal operations and, unlike the efforts during the Bay of Pigs era, cannot rely on Cuban partners organised on the ground. CIA analysts are also reportedly examining new intelligence streams in search of clues regarding the movement of funds and the business dealings of the regime’s leaders. A CIA task force is, by definition, a flexible instrument, whose operational directives can be amended by the President at any time.

The revelation comes a day after Politico reported an increase in espionage activities and intelligence assets in Cuba, including over 150 hours of aerial reconnaissance missions – carried out using P-8A Poseidon and RC-135V Rivet Joint aircraft, as well as MQ-4C Triton drones – since February this year. Politico also cites sources suggesting that this deployment “could support an intensification of intelligence operations, potentially leading to military planning”, whilst clarifying that no military action has been approved nor is imminent.

The creation of the task force marks the culmination of an escalation that has been ongoing since the start of the year. In May, the CIA director himself, John Ratcliffe, travelled to Havana for an unusual high-level visit – the first by a head of that agency to Cuba in decades. There, he personally delivered Trump’s message: Washington would only discuss economic and security matters if Cuba implemented ‘fundamental changes’, including economic and political reforms, and put an end to Russian and Chinese intelligence operations on the island. On that occasion, Ratcliffe met with the Cuban Minister of the Interior, Lázaro Álvarez Casas, and the head of the Cuban secret services. The regime responded by presenting what it described as evidence that the island does not pose a threat to US national security.

A few days after that visit, the United States imposed sanctions on senior Cuban officials and the leadership of the intelligence service, known as the DGI or G2. In July, the State Department published a 107-page report classifying Cuba as a structural threat to US national security, and senior Pentagon officials analysed possible actions against the island. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the leading advocate of this policy within the Administration and himself of Cuban origin, regards Cuba as a “top priority” and supports the use of “all conventional tools”, including intelligence, to exert pressure on the regime in Havana. “These intentions come as no surprise, given that Cuba has long been the target of the CIA’s espionage, subversion and destabilisation activities, including terrorism,” Cuba’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, told the New York Times. “Yet the State Department has the audacity to label Cuba a threat for having exercised its right to legitimate self-defence.” The creation of the CIA task force demonstrates the extent to which the agency is preparing for what could be a long-term covert campaign. Other US intelligence agencies are also taking steps to gain a better understanding of the situation on the ground in Cuba. In particular, the National Security Agency (NSA) and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) have also begun to direct a greater number of intelligence-gathering resources towards Cuba, including satellites. All of this is to enable the US Armed Forces to update their options for potential military action against Cuba, should Trump decide to proceed in that direction.