“Iran and the US have yet to prove which is the stronger contender.” Says Kuperwasser

Rome. The United States has once again deployed B-1 bombers to strike Iran for the twelfth consecutive night. They took off from the British base at Fairford, after the new British Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, approved the use of military bases by the United States for raids against Iran, continuing Keir Starmer’s policy. More than a hundred American doctors have arrived at the Landstuhl Regional Medical Centre in Germany: the hospital is the main centre for treating troops wounded in combat in the Middle East. These preparations suggest that the Trump administration is considering escalating the conflict after three American soldiers were killed in an Iranian attack in Jordan.

Whilst striking US bases from Jordan to Kuwait to Iraqi Kurdistan, Iran is avoiding a direct attack on Israel for fear of a military response. Meanwhile, whilst the Jewish state reopened its missile shelters yesterday and Iran announced it had taken control of the Strait of Hormuz, its Houthi allies in Yemen were also laying siege to the Red Sea, shelling two Saudi ships. According to analysts at Standard Chartered Bank, we are now facing a ‘two-chokepoint problem’: two chokepoints instead of one.

The Iranian proxy seeks control of Bab el Mandeb, the ‘Gate of Sorrow’, the entrance to a shipping route leading all the way to Suez, through which 15 per cent of world trade and 30 per cent of global container traffic passes. “The problem is that the memorandum signed by the United States with Iran in Pakistan leaves the Iranians free to control Hormuz under an agreement they will be able to negotiate with the Omanis,” Yossi Kuperwasser, former director of the Israeli military intelligence research unit and now head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, tells Il Foglio. “That agreement reflects the United States’ willingness to allow the Iranians to have a say in the wars that will unfold in the Gulf. What the Americans mean is one thing; what the Iranians mean is exactly the opposite.”

Osama bin Laden said that “when people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will prefer the strong horse”. According to Kuperwasser, the war between Tehran and Washington today is precisely to establish who is the strongest horse in the region. “And it’s not clear. If it were clear, it would already have been resolved. It’s not clear who the strong horse is in this context, because the Iranians do not hesitate to use force to impose their own interpretation. And so do the Americans. Both sides use force to convince the other that they are the strong horse. And the whole world must realise that either we are the strong horse, or the other side is. Once this has been resolved and agreed upon, then there will be a solution. But until then, the escalation will continue. Gradually, because neither side wants an all-out war.”

The most important factor now is patience. “And usually these fanatical regimes have more patience than democracies because they can endure more hardship and are not really accountable to anyone.” Ten per cent of global oil shipments have already been disrupted by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. If successful, the Houthis’ move could reduce global supply by a further seven per cent. Europe had already changed course in 2024, when the first Houthi campaign had forced shipping routes to circumnavigate Africa. The European Aspides mission, launched in February 2024 in response to the first Houthi campaign, has its headquarters in Larissa, Greece. And it was Greece that this week gave the final go-ahead for the purchase of Israeli-made anti-aircraft, anti-ballistic and anti-tank systems. The decision was taken by the Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defence, chaired by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

Greece’s ‘Achilles Shield’ will utilise Rafael Spyder air defence systems, Barak MX anti-aircraft systems and a version of Israel’s ‘David’s Sling’ medium- and long-range missile defence system. The Kalamata International Flight Training Centre, where Greek pilots are trained, has been contracted out to Israeli systems, simulators and instructors. Cyprus, which has been targeted by Hezbollah missiles and is also within range of Houthi rockets, is already protected by the Israeli Barak MX system. Germany already has three Israeli Arrow 3 anti-missile batteries on its territory, just as Finland has the ‘David’s Sling’ system and Romania is deploying several Israeli batteries to strengthen the defence of NATO’s eastern flank, particularly in the Black Sea region. From the Houthis to Iran to Hezbollah, Israel’s security is also Europe’s security.