Sánchez scores a legal victory on the amnesty, but the political crisis remains

Madrid. For Pedro Sánchez, finally two pieces of half-good news which, however, perhaps do not quite add up to a whole. In response to the last possible appeal, a court in Madrid has ruled that his wife, Begoña Gómez, will stand trial for two out of four charges: influence peddling and embezzlement. A third charge has been consolidated, and the fourth – corruption between private individuals – has been dropped. The precautionary measures imposed by the stern judge Juan Carlos Peinado have also been lifted, so Begoña Gómez will be able to get her passport back and travel alongside her husband once more. Perhaps to go to New York to watch Sunday’s World Cup final, in which Spain face Argentina.

The other piece of good news is more significant politically. The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has ruled on the amnesty law passed in 2024 for the Catalan secessionists who, in 2017, had organised a referendum to declare Catalonia’s independence. Some of those political leaders ended up in prison, such as Oriol Junqueras, former vice-president of the Catalan Generalitat, whilst the then president, Carles Puigdemont, fled abroad and is still in Belgium, in Waterloo, the town from which he leads the Junts per Catalunya party.

At the request of certain associations, both the Spanish Court of Auditors and the Audiencia Nacional (the central court in Madrid) had referred questions for a preliminary ruling, to which the CJEU has now responded. In one case, the issue was whether granting amnesty for the offence of embezzlement (the use of public funds for an illegal referendum) would be detrimental to the EU’s financial interests; in the other, whether amnesty could be granted to those facing terrorism charges.

The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has ruled that amnesties and EU law are not incompatible. As the President of the Court, Belgian judge Koen Lenaerts, reiterated in a statement, amnesties are a valid legal tool for alleviating conflicts and institutional tensions. These words were immediately echoed by the Spanish Minister of Justice, Félix Bolaños, in defence of the government’s policy of reconciliation. However, other technical issues remain unresolved and, above all, the major political issue, which will sooner or later have to be reflected in the electorate’s verdict.

From a technical point of view, the CJEU’s ruling is a decisive move, but one within a complex game of chess. It is no coincidence that Junqueras (released from prison following a pardon, but still barred from holding public office) is taking a cautious line, describing the ruling as ‘insufficient’ and calling for its ‘immediate’ implementation by the Spanish courts. Puigdemont is more triumphant, speaking of a “complete victory” and eager to return to his homeland (although he has a different idea of what constitutes “homeland”). It was he who had appealed to the Constitutional Court, which had until now been awaiting the CJEU’s decision. Now, experts say, the Constitutional Court could require the Supreme Court to adopt a different interpretation of the offence of embezzlement, which would result in an amnesty for Puigdemont as well; however, the Supreme Court could in turn refer a new question for a preliminary ruling, which would bring everything to a standstill once again for many more months.

But the political heart has reasons that legal reasoning does not recognise. And different timelines. In Spain, there is an election next year, and Sánchez has weathered all the scandals by stubbornly holding out until the natural end of his term. He needs votes to keep his ramshackle majority afloat – a coalition that brings together very different political forces and has for years been nicknamed ‘Frankenstein’, a moniker one might attribute to some scornful opponent but which was in fact coined by a staunch socialist like Alfredo Rubalcaba (a former minister in the governments of Felipe González and Zapatero, as well as their successor at the helm of the PSOE).

The fact is that, until a few years ago, no one imagined it would be possible to make concessions to the Catalan autonomists after the great leap that had catapulted them into the realm of pure separatism, with no tangible sign of repentance. During the 2019 election campaign, Sánchez promised to bring the fugitive Puigdemont to justice. In 2021, he granted a pardon to the imprisoned leaders and, in 2024, an amnesty, because in the meantime his majority depended on the votes of Junts, forcing the government to negotiate with the fugitive at Waterloo (a perfect synecdoche for defeat). A trade-off that is not incompatible with EU law, but perhaps does not do justice to the high civic value of institutions such as pardons and amnesties.