complicated forecastsThe Federal Reserve’s costly gamble on inflationOver the past three years, the US central bank has underestimated the rise in prices. There is an element of bad luck linked to numerous unforeseeable shocks, but also some poorly targeted decisionsbyRiccardo Trezzi11 SEP 26
The HawkTrump’s Fed appointee signals a rate rise and challenges Bessent on TreasuriesOn the 65 months of high inflation, he takes the blame on behalf of the Fed. And regarding US government bonds, he calls for them to reflect what investors think about inflation and public finances, without ad hoc interventions byDavide Mattone29 AUG 26
The analysisUS employment figures are much worse than expected, but Wall Street is reacting positivelyThe US economy continues to grow whilst creating very few new jobs. And a weak labour market reduces the likelihood of monetary tightening, which had seemed increasingly likely following the Fed’s July meetingbyDavide Mattone8 AUG 26
The problemRaise interest rates? Warsh tries to buy time, the Fed is dividedThe new chair of the US Federal Reserve would like to raise interest rates to combat inflation. But he also wants to avoid snubbing President Trump, who has just appointed him. His concern is understandablebyLorenzo Bini Smaghi1 AUG 26