Theft and robbery are on the decline, whilst perceived crime and fear are on the rise. And the political world is in turmoil

It’s always the same story. A news story reignites the debate on self-defence, with the press and politicians divided between those calling for greater protection for those who defend themselves and those reminding us of the limits imposed by the Criminal Code. It has happened again with the final conviction of jeweller Mario Roggero, who in 2021 killed two robbers as they fled following a robbery at his shop.

It is a legitimate debate. But it starts from the wrong question: whilst Italy has been discussing burglaries in homes and shops for years, these crimes are becoming increasingly rare, and in some cases have literally disappeared. Burglaries are the most obvious example. After peaking in 2014, with around 256,000 reports, they began an almost continuous decline. In 2024, there were around 156,000, which is even lower than the pre-Covid trend. If we take a broader view, the decline is even more evident: in the late 1990s, around four burglaries per thousand inhabitants were reported; today, the figure stands at around two and a half. And Istat notes that the decrease may be underestimated, as the propensity to report such crimes has increased over the last thirty years.

The same trend applies to burglaries. In 2013, the figure exceeded 3,600. Today, it stands at just under 1,900. Shops tell a similar story: there were 8,075 cases in 2006; today, the figure is around half that. Consequently, incidents involving the issue of self-defence are inevitably becoming rarer.

This is no exception. Bank robberies have all but disappeared: from over three thousand a year in the early 2000s to just 63 in 2024 (thanks to the reduction in cash and more secure branches). Thefts of cars, motorbikes and heavy goods vehicles (which have also all but disappeared), bag snatching and pickpocketing have all fallen. Overall, the total number of reported thefts has fallen by around a third compared with the start of the century, whilst robberies have halved.

Of course, a single burglary is enough to ruin a life. And it is understandable that incidents such as Roggero’s should provoke a strong emotional response. But politics should have the task of distinguishing between what captures the public’s attention and what truly represents a collective priority. From this perspective, it is striking that a significant part of the debate on security continues to revolve around a phenomenon that statistics show is in steady decline. Yet public perception points in the opposite direction. According to Censis, burglary is now the crime that Italians fear more than any other: 59 per cent cite it as their main concern, compared with 48 per cent just a year ago. It is one of the clearest examples of how news reports, politics and social media distort the perception of risk.

Meanwhile, however, other crimes are on the rise in major cities: street robberies, assault, and acts of violence committed by minors. These are issues less suited to slogans and more difficult to tackle through a simple amendment to the Criminal Code. And this is perhaps the real paradox of Italian security policy. The debate continues to focus on the crimes Italians fear most, but not on the very ones that are becoming increasingly common. Fear follows perception; politics follows fear. Criminals, on the other hand, are changing their targets. And perhaps the public debate should do the same.