Vannacci as a candidate and the ‘Gualtieri as unifier’ theory. All the uncertainties surrounding the elections in Rome

Between mid-April and mid-June, the Rome mayoral election will take place – perhaps a few months earlier, perhaps on a single election day alongside the general election, which would combine the Chamber of Deputies, the Senate and local elections into a single, nail-biting round of voting. No one knows yet, and this uncertainty over the date is compounded by a more intriguing uncertainty: that regarding the candidates. With less than seven months to go before the vote, no one knows who will challenge Mayor Roberto Gualtieri, who is seeking a second term. The rumour doing the rounds at the moment centres on Roberta Angelilli, vice-president of the Lazio region and a leading figure in the more intellectual wing of the Rome branch of Fratelli d’Italia, once led by a gentleman such as Andrea Augello, Angelilli’s husband who died in 2023. Yet, although the deal appears to be done, nothing has been made official. And the reason for this lies in the many uncertainties surrounding the election, which mean that even what seems certain is by no means a foregone conclusion. Gualtieri, in fact, is not only the centre-left’s natural candidate to succeed himself at the Palazzo Senatorio, but he is also one of the names most frequently mentioned in recent days amongst those of potential unifiers of the broad coalition – a possible bridge between the PD, M5S, AVS and the rest of the coalition; in short, a potential prime minister-in-waiting. This hypothesis is further strengthened by observing how the mayor has begun to manoeuvre. In his latest interview with La Repubblica, fresh from a meeting with his New York counterpart and icon of the international “pop left”, Zohran Mamdani, Gualtieri does not confine himself to issues concerning Rome but touches on all the major national and international issues – Ukraine, immigration, education, housing – as one would expect from an interview with a prime ministerial candidate rather than a mayor grappling with potholes and roadworks. When asked directly whether he would be open to a role as a unifying figure for the centre-left, Gualtieri replies by pointing out that he is the mayor of Rome and wishes to continue the city’s transformation for another five years, but immediately adds that it is important to him that the centre-left goes into the elections with a strong platform, and that the real issue is not so much leadership as the programme and the solutions to the country’s major problems. An elegant way of not closing the door at all.

Meanwhile, as we were saying, the mayor is not sitting idly by. In addition to his meeting with Mamdani, in recent weeks he spoke at the conference organised by Italiani Europei, Massimo D’Alema’s foundation, with the telling title “Governare le città per governare l’Italia”. From the stage, ‘Lider Maximo’ reiterated his opposition to the Schlein-Conte primaries, which effectively means: ‘a third man’. And why not one of those mayors who have come into his fold? Gualtieri took the opportunity to draw on his administrative experience to develop national proposals. He said, for example, that the resources spent on capping petrol prices could be put to better use in strengthening public transport. This is no small matter: it is precisely the sort of constructive opposition that Elly Schlein – caught up in chasing the government on the ground of daily controversy – almost never manages to offer.

It is also this uncertainty that is keeping Angelilli’s honourable – though likely doomed to defeat – campaign on hold on the right. Without Gualtieri, different scenarios would emerge, and therefore other potential candidates might also come forward. Moreover, General Vannacci is complicating matters for that camp, both in Rome and across Italy. He had promised to put forward a candidate from Futuro Nazionale very quickly, partly to spur the centre-right into action, as happened in Milan with General Burgio. However, there is no candidate. For some time now, there has also been talk of the possibility that Vannacci’s candidate might, in the end, be Vannacci himself. As recent history shows, standing for election in Rome has always been a formidable springboard for those aspiring to national leadership: from Francesco Rutelli to Walter Veltroni, from Giorgia Meloni to Carlo Calenda, right up to Gualtieri himself, now a potential unifier of the centre-left. FdI is waiting, and it cannot be ruled out that a Vannacci candidacy in Rome might be a way of striking a deal with the general at a national level as well.