No progress on Kyiv. Amidst suspicions and rumours, divisions remain across the political spectrum

Rome. In the background are the usual suspects with their sights set on the primaries, along with a few ghosts. The well-known differences between the parties in the broad coalition remain, and indeed the sherpas will meet again next Tuesday for a second round of talks. But in the meantime, the preliminary discussions on Kyiv have begun, with everyone committed to reaching a consensus. What will this consensus look like? It is still too early to say; the work will involve careful choice of words and imagination, ‘diplomacy’ and a ‘clear break’ with foreign policy – a phrase repeatedly invoked by Giuseppe Conte, both on television and in parliamentary proceedings – which, for the time being, allows the M5S to express cautious ‘satisfaction’. However, those in +Europa are also ‘satisfied’, as they believe that sending arms to Ukraine and supporting its defence is an essential part of the centre-left’s programme. They may see in this shift in Europe’s stance the possibility of greater commitment – including military involvement – from Brussels: this is an approach shared, in principle, by the other reformists in the coalition as well. The PD, on the other hand, is in the middle and is working to bridge the gap. It would like to finalise the agreement as soon as possible. Even AVS, which does not share the Democrats’ stance on Ukraine, would prefer not to drag things out too long, fearing for the coalition’s stability. There is a call to approach the discussion outside the context of electoral politics, because “no one can expect to gain support at the expense of their allies”, as Nicola Fratoianni had warned. Much will depend on the M5S.

The meeting begins at 3 pm and lasts approximately three hours, one hour longer than announced. Some, such as Riccardo Ricciardi, are smoking a cigarette whilst listening to Giuseppe Provenzano of the Democratic Party set out the Nazareno’s arguments. Also taking part in the video call are Alessandro Alfieri for the PD and the other M5S group leader, Luca Pirondini, representing the M5S. Then there are Peppe De Cristofaro and Luana Zanella from AVS. Enrico Borghi of Italia Viva is present, as is Marco Simoni – director of the Institute of International Affairs – representing Più Uno, alongside the socialist Bobo Craxi. Each participant outlines their own positions, and the joint work carried out on foreign policy is highlighted. This is no small matter, starting with Gaza, but it is still not enough. This is also evident from the statement circulated in the late afternoon by the parties in the broad coalition. There is therefore talk of “broad consensus on the need for a clear break from the Meloni government, putting diplomacy, peace, a leading European role and multilateralism back at the centre”. A formulation in which, between the lines, everyone can claim or refer to something, with a few suggestions for the final mediation: from a European envoy to a different relationship with Donald Trump’s United States, right through to a model inspired by the Helsinki Conference and Agreements. For the time being, to avoid further rifts, this will do. The participants speak of a “serious atmosphere”. The discussion is based on the mid-October resolutions tabled in Parliament ahead of the European Council, when the various factions within the broad coalition mutually abstained even on points they did not agree on. But, as is still filtering out from the Nazareno, “there remain unresolved issues”. There is also a suspicion that Conte wishes to prolong and dilute the debate, as his opposition to supplying arms to Kyiv is seen as his strongest asset in the race for leadership, especially if (in addition to Beppe Grillo’s jibes) Di Battista’s group were indeed to enter the fray. Today, not coincidentally, the former prime minister will be in Perugia for another stop on the M5S tour: ‘You pay for the war’.

The prospect of a showdown in the primaries is one that the Nazareno would like to avoid. They will be trying to do so over the coming days; discussions are ongoing, in an attempt to find a winning formula as early as next Tuesday. Beyond the statements, it will by no means be easy, and in any case the final say will rest with the leaders. Not only on foreign policy: other sticking points relate to the wealth tax, championed by AVS but which Conte finds ‘ideological’. Or on justice: the offence of abuse of office, which a section of the PD would not wish to reintroduce straight away, unlike their allies. In any case, “there is a willingness to reach an agreement on everything” is the mantra on the left. And in this regard, things may be moving forward, at least where it is easiest. Take immigration, for instance: this was the other round of talks scheduled for yesterday, attended by Franco Gabrielli, who proposed a ministry for migration policy, separate from the Ministry of the Interior. An idea that was met with “openness” and support. All eyes are now on Kyiv.

Ruggiero Montenegro