Opinion polls show the centre-left ahead of the centre-right. The PD, Lega and FI are gaining ground, while Vannacci continues to lose ground.

The neck-and-neck race between the centre-right and centre-left currently favours the broad coalition. According to the latest SWG poll, the centre-left is in fact ahead of the centre-right by almost one percentage point, 44.9 per cent to 44 per cent. The poll therefore, excluding from the two blocs ‘Futuro Nazionale’ – now in steady decline to the point where it hovers around 5.5 per cent, having fallen by 0.3 per cent over the last seven days – and Carlo Calenda’s ‘Azione’ alongside ‘Spazio Pubblico’ (at 3.2 per cent), the movement founded by former Democratic Party member Pina Picierno – shows that both coalitions are currently above the 42 per cent threshold for the majority bonus, but that the governing coalition is trailing.

The centre-left, backed by a coalition ranging from the Green-Left Alliance to Italia Viva, achieved a total of 44.9 per cent, though this is 0.1 per cent lower than in the previous poll on 2 November. The Democratic Party remains the leading opposition force, rising to 20.8 per cent (+0.2), followed by Giuseppe Conte’s Five Star Movement and Nicola Fratoianni and Angelo Bonelli’s AVS, which remain stable at 12.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively. Similarly, Matteo Renzi’s Iv-Casa Riformista remains at 2.2 per cent. PiùEuropa, on the other hand, loses 0.2 per cent and falls to 1.2 per cent, whilst the other parties in the coalition together account for 1.9 per cent (-0.2 per cent compared with seven days earlier). 

On the other hand, the centre-right coalition gained a total of 0.2 percentage points, bringing its total to 44 per cent. Fratelli d’Italia remains firmly the country’s leading party at 28.9 per cent, albeit with a slight fall (0.1), whilst its two main government allies, Forza Italia and the Lega, are on the rise: Antonio Tajani’s party has in fact risen to 7.3 per cent (+0.1), whilst Matteo Salvini’s Lega has reached 5.7 per cent (+0.2), confirming the upward trend of recent weeks. Cateno De Luca’s Sud chiama Nord also gains 0.1 per cent; reaching 1.1 per cent, it has, for the time being, overtaken Maurizio Lupi’s Noi moderati, which has fallen to 1 per cent (-0.1).