What is at stake for the left when it panders to the masses? Ghisleri and Diamanti speak out

People are filling the squares, though the polling stations are somewhat less crowded, and not necessarily because of the broad coalition. “The centre-left must be wary of mass demonstrations; the moderate electorate might pull back if faced with a political line-up too closely associated with clashes.” Giovanni Diamanti, co-founder of Youtrend, speaks to Il Foglio whilst the marches of the general strike called by the USB are taking place in more than 50 Italian cities. On 20 November, it will be the turn of Maurizio Landini’s (CGIL) strike, but the clamour caused by the clashes of 17 October still echoes through the streets. “Seventy-seven per cent of Italians agree with the reasons behind the demonstrations that have taken place since mid-October in various cities,” explains the pollster. “Similarly, that very same poll shows a certain level of support for the tougher, security-focused measures.” Indeed, all the measures in the decree approved by the Council of Ministers on 20 October have the backing of the majority of those surveyed. The most popular measure by far is the obligation for parents to pay for damage caused by their minor children (with 76 per cent in favour and 17 per cent against).

“There are differing viewpoints within public opinion; there is no single, clear trend,” argues Diamanti, highlighting another interesting point that emerges from the figures compiled by Youtrend. On the one hand, it is true that the centre-left coalition (including Italia Viva, despite Giuseppe Conte’s objections) is ahead of the centre-right coalition (44 per cent versus 41.9 per cent). “But Giorgia Meloni’s party is the one that has grown the most over the last two weeks,” observes the pollster, “gaining 1.1 per cent, and also 0.7 per cent in the ‘Supermedia’,” that is, the weighted average of the various national polls. A statement from the USB yesterday morning spoke of one and a half million female workers taking to the streets and of an “eviction notice that was served on Meloni today”. To convert the demonstrators into voters, however, much more is needed. “The centre-left must find a narrative and political framework that very clearly combines understanding, solidarity and support for the issues raised by these demonstrations with a fairly clear stance on security issues, which are also felt on the left when they concern public order. And all this must obviously be done – Diamanti points out – by finding a position that reconciles both aspects in a clear and coherent manner. It would be madness to follow the government’s security-focused response.”

What is therefore needed is “a reassuring stance in the event of unrest, without, however, undermining the values that drive centre-left voters”. Such voters would hesitate to vote that way if they saw their political party of choice acting too strongly in defence of those who smash shop windows or incite others to do so. “Otherwise,” says Diamanti, “part of the electorate will be frightened off.” Alessandra Ghisleri, a political scientist and director of Euromedia Research, is also convinced of this. “Just look at the PD alone, where some of the more moderate sections of the electorate show a certain reluctance to take a firm stance on these issues, and may certainly feel more intimidated.” Meanwhile, within Avs, there are those who dream of a candidacy for Youssef Siher, the 30-year-old believed to be the administrator of the Instagram page and the Telegram group ‘Movimento 17 ottobre’. “It would be a symbolic candidacy in the style of Ilaria Salis,” Diamanti adds, “but it would certainly risk alienating moderate voters.” The Vannacci phenomenon is waning poll after poll: according to Diamanti, Meloni now appears more credible precisely on the issue of security. Paradoxically, this is an issue on which the government could gain a further advantage, as Ghisleri explains. Even with the strike that has taken place in the last few hours: “A march that proceeds safely is also a success for the government, despite the protest placards.”