Elly Schlein, held hostage by Conte, cannot see through the bluff

Elly Schlein has vowed that the centre-left will never split again, and since then it has been solely up to Giuseppe Conte to decide whether to split it. Yesterday, the leader of the M5S gave a conditional hint of this, via Bruno Vespa. In previews of Storia della Seconda Repubblica, in bookshops on Monday, Conte made it clear that the presence in the coalition of Italia Viva, Matteo Renzi’s party, “is not our problem, but Italy’s” and that, since “it was the PD that wanted Renzi to be with us”, it is up to Secretary Schlein to secure the “political guarantees”. This blunt remark directed at the “stubbornly unifying” Schlein came on the very morning of the summit at which the leaders of the PD, M5S and AVS – namely Schlein, Conte, Angelo Bonelli and Nicola Fratoianni – set the coalition’s timetable (the programme will be ready by November, there will be a national mobilisation in December and the primaries will be held by February). In the joint statement, also signed by Conte, the four expressed their hope for “a leadership that is fully supported by every force within the progressive camp”. Schlein, however, after reading Conte’s statement in the news agency reports, did not utter a single word. Once again, she has chosen to remain silent.

She—that is, Elly—has made unity a vow, in the sense that convents give weight to the word. And as happens to those who take vows, she discovers every morning that the vows bind only her. Over recent months, this has translated into a form of voluntary and open-ended captivity, overseen by her sole ally – Conte – who is the only one who might threaten to leave, because he is the only one who has never promised to stay. For almost two years now, the leader of the M5S has been making the fullest use of this freedom: namely, changing his mind. In March, whilst the count of the referendum on the justice system was showing the ‘No’ vote was winning, he was the first to call for primaries. In August, he even wanted the primaries themselves to decide the party line on arms for Ukraine, whilst Schlein replied that the party programme came first. However, in September – perhaps touched by the suspicion that Schlein might win at the polling stations – Conte suddenly realised that it was necessary to ‘clarify a few key points in advance’. The party programme first, then, as Schlein had said. And on 6 October, he revealed to La7 that, in a meeting intended to remain confidential, he had proposed to the party secretary that all the leaders, “myself included”, should step aside in favour of a third candidate – in other words, to do without the primaries that he himself had first called for.

With the idea of a ‘third candidate’ – a U-turn – rejected by his allies, Conte then returned to the idea of holding primaries ‘as soon as possible’, then to primaries in which one could choose ‘from among several candidates’, and finally, yesterday, he declared ‘I’m in’, accompanied by remarks about Renzi and the ‘guarantees’ the PD should provide. For Schlein, the comedy has now turned to tragedy. The secretary has staked her entire future on the unity of the centre-left, and so far she has paid for it with silence, with jibes she has had to swallow, and with retorts she has had to keep to herself. Now Schlein senses – and fears – that all this patience might go unrewarded. Behind the guarantees Conte is demanding, and behind the flippancy with which he changes his position, there lies an underlying implication that those at the Nazareno know how to decipher all too well: namely, that the alliance will hold as long as he might be the one to lead it, whilst it could fall apart the day it falls to her. It may well be that the Five Star Movement leader is merely playing a dangerous game of poker right down to the last card, because outside the coalition, Conte would be offering his own party certain defeat and handing Giorgia Meloni a victory on a plate. But the insidious thing about a bluff is that it works best against those who cannot afford to call. And Schlein, due to her ‘stubbornly unified’ vote, cannot.