The League and the crossroads of a vote: which is more important, autonomy or remigration?

Real decisions are rarely taken at party conferences: more often than not, they merely rubber-stamp the leaders’ wishes. The Lega conference, scheduled for this weekend, is an exception. Massimo Garavaglia’s candidacy has thrown a spanner in the works of Matteo Salvini’s plan, devised in Pontida, to bring the internal debate to a close whilst pretending to open it up. Formally, the delegates will have to nominate the new secretary, but everyone knows it will be the same person as the current one. The real choice concerns what sort of party the Lega will become.

Within the Carroccio, Garavaglia is far better known than he is outside it. His political career dates back to the 1990s, the era of the early Lega movement, which was grassroots and deeply rooted in the local community. He has followed the entire cursus honorum: activist, campaigner, mayor, MP, committee chair, undersecretary, minister. He has represented his constituents and learnt to navigate the institutions. In this respect, his career path resembles that of Salvini. The difference lies not so much in personality as in outlook.

Salvini pulled the Lega out of the electoral abyss into which it had fallen, but he also transformed it: from a regional political group into a national, sovereignist and radical movement. Garavaglia has accepted – or perhaps endured – this evolution without severing the link with the party’s original mission. His candidacy has no realistic chance of victory. His ambition lies elsewhere and, in some respects, is more courageous: to gauge just how strong the appeal of regional autonomy still is amongst Lega supporters.

The eighty signatures required to stand at the congress have been secured, and they are all the more significant given the absence of many key figures. Attilio Fontana, Garavaglia’s most influential backer, is on board, along with several Lombardy regional councillors. However, as Carmelo Caruso reported in Il Foglio, the other governors are absent: Massimiliano Fedriga and Maurizio Fugatti have stayed out of it, whilst Alberto Stefani has backed Salvini. Luca Zaia has not taken sides, confirming that he is an excellent administrator and a consensus-builder, but not a leader. Nor has Giancarlo Giorgetti taken a stance: but whilst the ‘Doge’s’ silence weakens Garavaglia, that of the Minister for the Economy strengthens him.

Garavaglia is well aware that the Lega cannot return to its roots. The fate of Via Bellerio is now firmly rooted in the centre-right coalition, and its political and electoral reach is national. As Roberto D’Alimonte observed, in 2013 “4.1 per cent [of the Lega’s vote] came from 90 per cent of voters in the North. The estimated 5.6 per cent today consists of roughly half of voters from the North and the other half from other regions”. It is easy for the League to lose further votes in the South, but difficult to win them back in the North. Therefore, the possibility of a new, fully federalist phase is to be ruled out.

Yet this party congress is a crucial turning point. The level of support for Garavaglia will indicate to what extent the party leadership considers it useful – or even possible – to refocus on the relationship with the local communities and local self-government. This will send a signal that Salvini cannot ignore: whilst the delegates will confirm his mandate to lead the Carroccio into the elections, they will not necessarily give him carte blanche. Admittedly, these are men who are the mouthpieces of the secretary who co-opted them: but, faced with a choice between loyalty and survival, they might cling to the latter, taking advantage of the lifeboat offered by the secret ballot. By expressing their preference, Lega members will make Garavaglia the mouthpiece through which to signal whether, during the election campaign, the secretary should speak more about autonomy or more about remigration.