A sham: the building amnesty and the single ZES for Italy

While awaiting the opportunity to take them to the polls, he is currently taking them on a trial run. Only a disarming Left could believe that Meloni will be stopped by the Constitutional Court and that Salvini and Tajani will prevent her from going to the polls soon—as early as April. Firstly, Mattarella (who promulgated the ‘Melonellum’) has no intention of obstructing the process, but is merely calling for an ‘orderly exit’. This is what the President’s friends say, and they also state that ‘if Meloni decides to go to the polls, there will certainly be no technical government. Let’s not kid ourselves’. Secondly, they are preparing a ‘fake Meloni’. Dust off a battle from 2025 that had been shelved. FdI intends to reintroduce the provision on the building amnesty in Campania into the Budget Bill. Another measure will be ‘ZES Italia’, and Salvini is still calling, like Elsa Fornero, for ‘sacrifices’ – but from the banks, in the form of voluntary expropriation.

At Palazzo Chigi, they believe a serious discussion on the election date will take place in January. They also believe – though this is Salvini’s view (he now claims he ‘has never been a friend of Putin’) – that the election will be held ‘at the natural end of the term, in autumn 2027’ and that the ten major national banks and insurance companies must provide ‘five billion, as an extraordinary, joyful and voluntary contribution’. Apart from Salvini, who dreams of a Bukharin-style economy, and apart from these theatrics regarding the date, the League is also ready to go to the polls. On Monday, the federal committee meeting will be held to establish the rules for the League’s extraordinary congress, but it is already known that Salvini will emerge from it, as usual, as secretary – and perhaps in a stronger position than before. No surprises are expected, nor are there any challengers; quite the contrary. Salvini is certain that Luca Zaia will head the list in the next general election and that Attilio Fontana will also be on it. The 160 million from the variable excise duties that Meloni is keeping in reserve for darker times will be needed in the coming months, and everyone realises that they will be used for the election campaign. On Wednesday, Meloni will address the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies to deliver her statements ahead of the European Council and, as always, will have lunch with Mattarella. It will be an opportunity to discuss an ‘orderly exit’ – the kind of exit which, as Fazzolari told Salvatore Merlo in Il Foglio, would allow the next government to draw up a budget bill without any fuss.

The idea that a vote could take place before the local elections is gaining serious traction, not least because Vannacci has lost his momentum. The Brothers of Italy are convinced of this, as they monitor his online forums and record the insults directed at the general. The left is unprepared, bogged down in its primaries, and whatever Forza Italia and the League are lacking, Meloni can make up for. As we write, Tajani is due to meet Marina Berlusconi, either at Arcore or at the Cavaliera’s home. As for the ‘Zaia’ of Forza Italia, Occhiuto could take on that role, even as co-leader, whilst in the south there is a formidable opportunity to secure a full share of preference votes. It is called the ‘condono’, and it is the legislation designed to resolve the 55,000 pending demolition orders. The measure would allow the 2003 deadline to be reopened. Last year, FdI attempted this with four amendments tabled in the Senate (as well as in the ‘Milleproroghe’ decree and the ‘Piano Casa’ housing plan). The move fell through at the time. FdI will try again this year, if only to catch the left in Campania out. The regional president, Roberto Fico, might oppose it or refuse to implement the legislation, but it would in any case have an impact on the vote in this region, which is the heartland of the M5S. The battle over the amnesty is being led by Edmondo Cirielli, the Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, who boasts over 100,000 votes and is the figure set to drive the party forward. The tax amnesty is a measure designed for the south, whilst in the north, Meloni wants to launch ‘ZES Italia’, previously conceived to streamline bureaucracy in disadvantaged areas and now extended, as requested by industrial associations (whom Meloni will meet on Monday in Milan alongside Attilio Fontana). The League’s demands, in addition to the new Salvini-Bucharin economic policy, are the familiar ones. The focus returns to the identity-based policies championed in recent years by Claudio Durigon: the flat tax, up to 100,000 euros, and the – albeit carefully considered – freedom to retire at 64. Then there are the demands from Forza Italia, a party increasingly led by four figures: Tajani, Occhiuto, Mulè and Zangrillo. Speaking in Milan at a party event with a Gramscian flavour, the Minister for Public Administration said: “The electoral law is fine, but now we must explain the real reasons for ticking the box next to the Forza Italia symbol.” Occhiuto calls for an “ambitious and sexy” party.

Maurizio Casasco, the economics editor, lists Forza Italia’s demands, explaining to Il Foglio – and to Salvini –: “Asking the banks for a contribution does nothing but unsettle the markets; asking the banks for a contribution (banks that hold 450 billion in government bonds) only serves to exasperate the situation and raises a credibility issue. The banks should be offered a social pact, to allow them to channel their revenues into the social economy”. Forza Italia also wants Giorgetti to introduce an incremental flat tax, tax exemption on the thirteenth-month bonus and a cashback scheme for healthcare expenditure. Fortunately, feasibility is Giorgetti’s problem. A potential ruling by the Court, on the other hand, would not be a problem (though this is a matter of electoral law). At least, that’s what Meloni’s ministers say. The part of the bill that the government anticipates could be amended concerns the Senate bonus, which is not distributed on a regional basis. The government is scrambling for funds (which it does not have), dusting off old ideas presented as new (motor vehicle tax, tax amnesty). The notion of defeating Meloni through the Court, appeals, and by relying on Mattarella’s intervention is likened to Pinocchio being led around by the little butter man.