Schifani has not yet resigned. But in Sicily, Forza Italia no longer wants him.

Renato Schifani’s resignation has, for the time being, been averted and seems less likely following yesterday’s disastrous day. However, the battle within Forza Italia in Sicily is no longer solely about his resignation. The battle over what comes next has already begun. The issue today does not appear to be an early election, but rather how to see the governor through to the end of the legislative term without granting him a second term.

Following the ‘change of pace’ and the ‘completely new political proposal’ called for by regional commissioner Nino Minardo, Schifani played for time, speaking of decisions to be taken ‘with a sense of responsibility’. On Tuesday evening, there was a heated telephone conversation with Antonio Tajani, followed by a meeting of the executive committee this morning at Palazzo d’Orléans, with the ‘most urgent measures’ on the agenda. The executive committee meeting at Palazzo d’Orléans addressed thirteen items on the agenda, but made no mention of the resignation. The priorities at present are the budget amendments to be approved and, further down the line, the Stability Law. There is just one new development: a draft bill aimed at ensuring the traceability of public decision-making processes, to prevent undue influence. But that is not all. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is due to arrive in Taormina on Monday, an event which Schifani is also required to attend; resigning now would certainly have been ill-timed.

Minardo has proposed a meeting in Rome with Tajani and Schifani “to map out the political path”. The face-to-face meeting could take place between Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It is there that the governor is likely to be told he will not stand for re-election in 2027. Not an immediate vote of no confidence, therefore, but the end of the possibility of a second term, with Forza Italia committing to support Schifani until the end of the parliamentary term. This is the compromise that would allow Rome to change its candidate without immediately turning the shift in policy into an institutional crisis.

The party’s reluctance to accept an immediate resignation is confirmed by its concern over the consequences of an early election. If Schifani were to step down, the first available date would be 13 December: until then, the government would continue with day-to-day administration, with the risk of failing to pass the Stability Law and ending up under provisional administration. At stake are budget adjustments totalling over 600 million and the financial statement that is expected to release significant funds. It is no coincidence that Schifani has emphasised the need for accountability.

There is also a practical concern regarding the Regional Assembly (Ars). For first-term regional deputies, the requirement of four years, six months and one day needed to qualify for a pension would only be met in May 2027. Ending the legislative term in December would mean cutting it short before that threshold is reached. This is why a longer-term solution is taking shape: to at least see the budget bill through to approval and then decide on the handover, postponing the vote until the spring. It is a scenario, not an agreement that has already been reached, and there is still no official date for the summit in Rome. But it is the formula that reconciles the various interests at play: Tajani needs to bring the Schifani candidacy saga to a close; the majority needs to avoid the immediate dissolution of the Sicilian Regional Assembly.

The Gaetano Armao case was the spark, but the crisis did not arise solely from the investigation. The governor’s former legal adviser and former chair of the specialist technical commission is accused of corruption by the Palermo Public Prosecutor’s Office. According to accounts published by the daily newspaper La Sicilia, the investigation files describe a role that allegedly went beyond that of a mere adviser: Armao is said to have used the Governor’s Office to meet with councillors and senior officials and, according to the prosecutors, to have exerted influence linked to his close relationship with Schifani.

This is the political problem that Rome seems keen to defuse. Minardo has denied having withdrawn his support for Schifani, but his call for a new phase has opened a rift that now directly affects the president’s candidacy. The summit in Rome, therefore, will in any case be an important milestone. The question is no longer simply whether Schifani will resign. The real challenge is to understand whether he will accept the compromise that Forza Italia appears to be preparing: to remain in office, manage the most sensitive administrative matters and see out the remainder of the parliamentary term, whilst knowing, however, that the party will not support him for a second term. If this is the outcome of the Rome summit, the current crisis will not have immediately led to a vote; instead, it will have signalled, well in advance, the end of the ‘post-Schifani’ era. Meanwhile, the regional commissioner for Fratelli d’Italia in Sicily has issued a statement, a sign of the coalition’s cracks: “The good of Sicily comes before any political decision,” he told La Repubblica. “FdI has some heavyweight names in the running for Palazzo d’Orlèans.”