Meloni is already bracing for the Court’s ruling on the electoral law

Elections are on the horizon. The Constitutional Court has set the stage, and the political landscape is now studded with ballot boxes. Preparations are underway for the May vote, yet officials continue to weigh economic indicators, calendar constraints, and other factors. Minister Pichetto turns the hourglass and explains: “We’ll assess in February whether to vote in May or November. It depends on Trump, on how the economy’s doing.” Christmas hasn’t even arrived yet and Easter’s about to be skipped. Fabio Rampelli, the Deputy Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies from FdI, says: “In the end, we can have an election day, or we’ll go to the polls when the term naturally expires.” Current events are overtaken by prophecy. A vote of confidence is being held on three articles of the electoral law, and Giuseppe Conte announces that “we need to speed up the primaries”. We’ve moved from the possibility of sabotage to the fate of the ‘Melonellum’, which is now before the Constitutional Court. Red sky at night and a polling booth (on the left), one hopes. (Caruso continues in Supplement I)

The Constitutional Court’s ruling is expected on 12 February, whilst the centre-left primaries are set to take place at the end of the month. Bets are on an ‘additive’ ruling. There are two possibilities: the Court overturns the provision on the Prime Minister’s nomination (rendering the primaries unnecessary) or overturns the section on the collection of signatures, which is causing headaches for Onorato and Ruffini. And what if the law slips through unscathed? What if the law passes unscathed? We put the question to Giovanni Donzelli, Meloni’s ‘right-wing imp’: are you certain the bill (the decisive vote in the Chamber is tomorrow) will clear the Court’s hurdle? Donzelli, who sets the exact time for the right – the ‘Donzelloult Pendulum’ – replies: “Nonsense. The Prime Minister’s guidance was there last time too. The bill will pass.” And will you be heading to the polls in May? “I propose the date of my birthday: 28 November 2027.” They have been playing it down for weeks so as not to irritate Salvini and Tajani, who is now quoting Gramsci (he is also present in the Chamber).

Reporters ask Galeazzo Bignami, the architect of this bill, why the coalition partners are opposing it in May, and Bignami, who has a knack for saying things without actually saying them, simply replies, “Perhaps our coalition partners want to put their own house in order, to achieve the best possible outcome.” The Lega has all but disappeared, even from the newspapers, to the extent that Fabrizio Sala, of Forza Italia, is seeking news from Andrea Crippa, who was Salvini’s deputy: “But Romeo, what’s become of him?”. They are already politicians on the wane. They are anxious about being overtaken in the elections by regional councillors and mayors, because even Schlein intends to follow Meloni’s lead: standing as lead candidate in five constituencies and sparking a battle for preferential votes. Gianni Cuperlo, known for his precise choice of words and with a book in his hand (Federico Fornaro’s Ventotene), points out that this could be the third electoral law ‘rewritten’ by the Constitutional Court, because ‘governability may well be a principle for Meloni, but it is not a constitutional principle’.

These are days of fear: the government is afraid of losing power and is even conscripting Nordio (who won’t give up his glass of white wine), whilst the newspapers are afraid of missing the story – a story that always makes them lose their bearings and stifles originality. The question concerns Vannacci: is his popularity waning? Pichetto, who knows the province well, observes: “Let me point out that in Brazil the polls got it wrong. I don’t see all these Vannacci supporters…”. The left is currently dominating the scene. In a corner – already a historic moment – Igor Taruffi is sitting apart with Conte’s ‘Sandokan’, one of his aides. The seasoned Giulio Tremonti – who, back when Taruffi was kicking a ball about and singing La Locomotiva, was drafting budget bills – warns: “They’ll be drawing up the list of undersecretaries or preparing the next Council of Ministers meeting.” Even the Five Star Movement know that Conte wants to become President of the Republic, via the presidency of the Senate, and doesn’t want Schlein at Chigi. To achieve his aim, he is once again considering a third figure, Gualtieri, and is even playing down his own ambitions, putting on the act of the ‘poor little Conte’: “For the good of the coalition, I can even step aside.”

Claudio Mancini, Rome’s ‘acatapano’ and Gualtieri’s friend, is genuinely toying with the idea that one day, like Dante, he, Roberto and Beppe Vacca might be swept away by enchantment… Mancini has even changed his outfit and jokes: “I’m Gualtieri’s Fazzolari”. Both Conte and Gualtieri are leaving Schlein to play the part of the one willing to do anything, so much so that it falls to Enzo Amendola, Conte’s former minister, to defend her: “She has every right to go to Chigi.” And will she win the primaries too? “Of course she’ll win them, trust me.” And what if there’s no need to appoint a prime minister? What if the Court were to strike down the law? Amendola then bursts out laughing: “Are you saying we’ll have to give the money back from the primaries?”

As for the actual money, that’s being handled by the usual suspect, Giorgetti, who is about to set off for Brussels to ask Ecofin for flexibility (the excise duty discount is being renewed). It is Giorgetti who deals with arithmetic, that precious science which consoles the left: ‘If we do the maths, we win’. Will that be enough? Are you sure? The right is catching its breath. Rampelli recalls, speaking of Vannacci: “Politics is a marathon, not a sprint. And arithmetic isn’t enough.” He also recalls when FdI was at three per cent and couldn’t gather enough signatures in South Tyrol: “It was winter and it was cold.” Within FdI, they’re already looking ahead to the future and, more than Schlein, are pondering the figure of Franco Gabrielli. They clearly see Mattarella’s hand at work here, the ‘party of power’. Gabrielli is the figure who, in the end, might… It’s all very well to say ‘win’. Francesco Bonifazi believes he once held power in his hands and could put his feet up on the table at Palazzo Chigi: “If we don’t screw things up, we’ll win, but I fear we will, so it’s better to vote soon”. Meloni’s real passion is the timetable.