Conte is already in ‘primary mode’: he is considering his next move against Kyiv’s arms. And he takes another dig at Schlein

To gauge the mood within the opposition, it is enough to note that even organising a public rally or a sit-in against the electoral law has become a complicated undertaking. Riccardo Magi is attempting this (will he succeed?), continuing his hunger strike and having even received a message from Giorgia Meloni yesterday, but he has had to contend with a certain reluctance on the part of other leaders, even on that issue – the defence of the Constitution – which has so far been the main unifying force on the left. After all, it seems it was even difficult to get all the leaders together at the Festa del Manifesto.

Once again, the story centres on the tensions between Giuseppe Conte and Elly Schlein, fuelled by behind-the-scenes reports of meetings and a third candidate, whom the Democrat has rejected, leaving only the primary route on the table. The former prime minister wants to press ahead with the programme and the campaign stands – as he reiterated yesterday – whilst, together with his team, he is already preparing for the next battle in Parliament over arms for Kyiv: the opportunity will arise in a week’s time, when the prime minister is in the Chamber to deliver her statement ahead of the European Council. The PD secretary, on the other hand, is taking a more cautious approach, grappling with internal party dynamics. Moreover, as is well known, she would like the primaries to be held as late as possible – “by February”, her aides say – perhaps after the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Melonellum, the timing of which remains uncertain. But Conte, her ally-rival, is in a hurry. “Primaries in January? The timetable is dictated by the need to be ready and prepared; we’ll discuss this with our allies,” is the former prime minister’s response. He envisages elections in the spring and would prefer not to hold a leadership contest right on the eve of the election campaign. And then: “Once a course of action is chosen, it must be pursued for the sake of consistency with the voters. We cannot remain in a state of total uncertainty,” he adds pointedly, responding to reporters in the Chamber of Deputies. He also mentions Sánchez, but above all presses Schlein, who shortly afterwards happens to pass by: “Hi Giuseppe, we’ll catch up later.” Polite exchanges. Who knows – given that lately the two have struggled to be seen together, almost going out of their way to avoid each other. Meanwhile, in the Transatlantico, Igor Taruffi shuttles between Democratic Party MPs, whilst bilateral meetings with the M5S staff are taking place. The sherpas are hard at work: there’s still the fallout from Schlein’s ‘one is not worth one’ remark, and there are many issues to be clarified, not to mention the timing of the primaries – though it’s still unclear who else will take part, given that even Maraio of the PSI didn’t rule it out yesterday. Then there is Onorato, the Ruffini–Gabrielli duo, a candidate backed by Renzi, and the wild card Avs, who continues to push for a programme that is still nowhere in sight. But on this issue, as is well known, Conte is unwilling to give an inch (“I will not lend myself to a watered-down project”), particularly on foreign policy and the refusal to supply arms to Kyiv: he will continue to hammer home this point and will do so without compromise.

“Come sempre,” assures a staunchly loyal senator of the M5S leader, already setting his sights on the resolutions due to be debated on the 14th in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. It will be a showdown with Meloni, but also a foretaste of the broad-based primaries – a platform that the former prime minister will not let slip by, seizing the opportunity to speak directly to the people at the polling stations, to that “60–70 per cent” of Italians who, according to Conte, share the M5S’s views. After all, the opposition has almost always been divided on the issue of Kyiv; imagine, then, how divided it is today when leadership is at stake. For Schlein, the path is far narrower: the reformists are lying in wait for her, demanding guarantees, and will continue to do so right up until the PD assembly scheduled for the 18th – the one at which the amendment to the party constitution to postpone the party congress will be approved. In short, the next parliamentary debate on Kyiv is marked in red by the minority, as is the vote on the Anti-Semitism Bill. Conte, too, will press ahead on this. Schlein, on the other hand, must navigate the Democratic Party assembly and the Montepulciano initiative led by the major faction comprising Franceschini, Speranza and Orlando (who will be in Genoa on Friday with Salis and D’Alema). Then, whilst waiting for the centrists, the programme will be drawn up – the famous round-table discussions. Meanwhile, the primaries have already begun – at least Conte’s have.