Chaos breaks out in the PD as support drops below 18 per cent. Conte wants primaries immediately

Many mayors from the PD are protesting against Airbnb’s sponsorship of the ANCI Annual Assembly, which is to be held from 25 to 27 November in Verona. “But how,” they say, “can we protest against the desertification of city centres – now left solely to tourists – and the impossibility for young people to access long-term, rent-controlled accommodation, yet within the association where we hold a majority – ANCI – do we accept the leading company that, by organising bed and breakfasts, encourages certain trends?” The mayors are taking issue with Elly Schlein who, in their view, has failed to take action against Gaetano Manfredi, the ANCI President, who was elected by the mayors of the Democratic Party. “She’s doing this to keep him on her side ahead of the primaries,” they claim, pointing the finger at the secretary.

Within the PD, according to some highly confidential polls, the party is convinced that if turnout in the primaries were below one and a half million, Schlein would win hands down. Above that figure, up to three million, it would be tougher, but the PD secretary would still have a good chance of winning. If turnout exceeds three million, the primaries would become more contestable for Giuseppe Conte. And it is for this reason, according to the Nazareno, that the leader of the Five Star Movement – despite his public proclamations – is backing away from the idea of primaries.

Within Elly Schlein’s inner circle, everyone is feeling very heartened following last week’s Executive Committee meeting. No one objected to the secretary’s request to be the PD’s sole candidate in the primaries, and any criticism was very muted, with just a few comments from the Reformists. The bulk of the party has fallen into line with the ‘barracks line’ – as some in the PD call it – which was broadcast far and wide by the head of the inner circle, Igor Taruffi, at the start of the week. ‘Everyone is thinking about candidacies and potential positions in government and sub-government should Elly form a government,’ comments someone in the Transatlantico.

The ‘barracks line’ therefore seems set to remain unchallenged. There is just one issue that could trigger a revolt amongst the PD’s senior figures: the steady loss of support the party has been recording in opinion polls over the last two months. The PD now stands at between 20 per cent and 19 per cent, a very low figure. If the decline were to continue, and the party were to fall to the 18 per cent threshold, then the PD’s senior figures would rise up in protest, concerned about the meagre number of seats the party, with such figures, might secure in the general election.

When will the primaries take place? Conte wants them as soon as possible; the Nazareno wants them as late as possible. “Because Schlein is afraid that if she loses and there’s still a long way to go before the election, she might be replaced. And she’s no longer even in charge of parliamentary candidacies,” say her detractors, speaking on condition of strict anonymity. “Elly is absolutely vicious,” they justify themselves.

And Conte? What will he do? At the Nazareno, they are convinced that, by agreeing to the primaries, he has effectively handed himself over to the PD. “He’ll run a campaign on peace, but the PD can also have its say on peace, without fearing anyone.” Yet there are some in the party who believe that, regardless of the primaries, should he lose, Conte might try to back out, precisely on the issue of war and arms in Kyiv. “I will not accept any compromises that fall short of my standards,” the Five Star Movement leader has been repeating in recent days. It is almost as if to say: if I win, I’ll stay; if not, I’ll fight against the arms on my own. Will that be the case?