Gigliuto: “Within the centre-right, Vannacci could draw votes from FdI and the Lega”

“The 10.94 per cent secured by the Futuro Nazionale candidate in Reggio Calabria shows that Vannacci’s influence is by no means negligible. Admittedly, in this constituency the gap between the two coalitions was enormous, but if the current electoral law remains in place, that same ten-point lead in a single-member constituency where the race is neck and neck is nonetheless a decisive factor.” This is what Livio Gigliuto, president of the Piepoli Institute, told Il Foglio in the aftermath of the by-election in Reggio Calabria, in which Forza Italia’s candidate Fabio Roscioli won decisively, with 51 per cent, both against the broad-coalition candidate Francesco Benedetto, who secured 36 per cent, and against Domenico Giannetta (10.9 per cent). “In this case, the gap between the centre-right and the centre-left was too wide for it to prove decisive, but the votes secured in Reggio Calabria are exactly the regional reflection of what national polls attribute to him, which put him at between 7 and 8 per cent,” explains Gigliuto. These percentages could prove decisive in the upcoming general election.

According to projections, with Fn out of the coalition, the result between the two coalitions would be a dead heat, with the broad coalition slightly ahead (41.5 per cent to 43 per cent). “But if Vannacci were to stand with the centre-right, he would certainly have a positive impact, bringing his 8 per cent share of the vote with him. Only at the start, however – warns Gigliuto – because there could then be two negative effects: in a potential governing coalition, Vannacci could draw away part of the Fratelli d’Italia and Lega electorate because he is more radical and does not carry the baggage of having governed for four years”. Furthermore, the president of the Piepoli Institute continues, “during the election campaign, the issue of the ‘tactical vote’ would cease to apply, and a voter could cast their vote for the former general whilst being confident that they are also supporting Meloni at the same time”. On the other hand, the two electorates are not all that dissimilar. In fact, according to the latest YouTrend poll for SkyTg24, 56 per cent of those who vote for the National Front would be in favour of an alliance with the centre-right. And on the other side, almost six out of ten Fratelli d’Italia voters (59 per cent) would not mind this scenario. Overall, 51 per cent of the current ruling coalition would be in favour of Vannacci joining.

However, as well as putting pressure on the other centre-right parties, bringing FN into the alliance could have a second negative consequence: with him in the coalition, “there would be a greater likelihood that Azione leader Carlo Calenda would join the broad coalition”, says Gigliuto, “and he might not be the only one: if he managed to expand the coalition and create a narrative that works and motivates voters, it is not out of the question that the broad coalition could become competitive again”. Furthermore, it could be that “with a more radical centre-right, some centre-left voters might decide to go and vote, something they would not have done without Vannacci as an opponent”.

It is obviously too early to make predictions, as the election campaign must take place before the vote. Meanwhile, the latest SWG polls for La7 show that, for the first time since the summer, Futuro Nazionale has not grown but remains stable at 8 per cent. “It is premature to say at this stage whether this is a plateau or a brief pause,” concludes Gigliuto. “It is obvious that Vannacci has already taken the bulk of his votes from the Lega in recent months, but that is a pool that will run dry sooner or later. Now we need to see whether he can still increase his support, and at this stage the main source of votes becomes FdI, but remaining outside the coalition makes this difficult. It is therefore clear that within the centre-right, the former general could be more appealing.”