FdI appoints commissioners and strikes deals in the south. Tajani is waiting for the by-elections and wants to secure the candidate lists

Regardless of when the election takes place – whether it is indeed next spring or even earlier should the Stabilicum collapse – the centre-right is already moving forward: organising itself for an election campaign that, in some respects, has already begun. And this is leading FdI, the Lega and Forza Italia to make choices and adopt tactics specifically geared towards the election. The Carroccio, however, is the only party in the coalition that will first have to face that moment of reckoning – the extraordinary congress – without which many strategies will remain on hold. But the situation is different for the others: Meloni’s supporters and the ‘Azzurri’ have already shifted into gear and seem intent on continuing along the path they have charted. In recent weeks, FdI has appointed a number of commissioners in the regions, cities and provinces. In mid-September, Gennaro Sangiuliano, a former Minister of Culture and regional councillor for Campania, was appointed regional coordinator for Campania. This is a way of securing him a seat ahead of the general election, but also of having a representative who can begin to gain ‘first-hand’ insight into the dynamics of the region. The same reasoning led FdI this week to appoint MEP and former regional councillor Francesco Torselli as its new coordinator in Florence, paired with Senator Paolo Marcheschi, who will serve as his deputy. Also in the south, Mauro Rotelli, the MP from Viterbo, has been sent to Basilicata as the new FdI coordinator; he has previously been called upon to ‘resolve’ delicate situations, for example in Grosseto and Sardinia. However, Meloni’s party is not merely seeking to consolidate territories deemed particularly strategic. Another strand of its strategy involves ongoing dialogue with various political groups and parties. In Sicily, for example, Cateno De Luca and his ‘Nord chiama sud’ movement have often been associated with the centre-left. Although the mayor of Taormina has repeatedly claimed to want to look ‘beyond party lines’, in recent times a certain affinity has been noted between De Luca and local representatives of FdI, in particular with the President of the Sicilian Regional Assembly, Gaetano Galvagno. In fact, to avoid having to secure 6,000 preferential votes per constituency (the same problem faced by Alessandro Onorato), “Nord chiama sud” would need at least a couple of MPs to distinguish itself within the Mixed Group. In return, De Luca could offer FdI a helping hand in eastern Sicily, where the movement has deep roots – so much so that in 2022 it managed to get Dafne Musolino elected to Parliament (who later left the project), who secured over 100,000 votes and won the by-election in the Messina and Enna constituency.

Whilst the election campaign has already begun within FdI – thanks in part to the fact that Giorgia Meloni’s leadership remains unchallenged – within Forza Italia there is apprehension ahead of tomorrow’s and Monday’s by-elections in Reggio Calabria to fill the seat left vacant by Francesco Cannizzaro. In reality, these concerns also extend to their allies, given that the Calabrian election is the first real test against Futuro Nazionale. But it is clear that Fabio Roscioli’s personal result – a lawyer for the Berlusconi family chosen by the President of Calabria, Roberto Occhiuto – will also reveal what Antonio Tajani’s next moves will be. Roscioli concluded his election campaign with a speech that failed to win over the people of Reggio (‘I come from the city of Rome, but that does not mean this will diminish my commitment to Reggio Calabria’), whilst Cannizzaro called Vannacci a ‘cuckold’. As for the Foreign Minister’s camp, although the hope is certainly to retain a seat that previously belonged to Forza Italia, they would not be too distraught. The reason is simple: having Roscioli out of Parliament would weaken his position when drawing up the next list of candidates for the general election, particularly given that he is the party treasurer. It is no coincidence that Roscioli was appointed to this role; he acts as a sort of intermediary between the party and the family. At that point, should Roscioli lose – however paradoxical it may seem – Tajani would strengthen his room for manoeuvre: by securing the support of various loyalists, particularly in Lazio and the south. Yesterday, all the leading Forza Italia figures gathered at Malpensa for the airport’s naming ceremony in honour of Silvio Berlusconi, attended also by Marina and Pier Silvio. But even there, critical voices were heard, such as that of Licia Ronzulli: “We’re stuck between 7 and 7.5 per cent. We need a turnaround.” Meanwhile, in Piedmont, Minister Zangrillo, in a sign of the tensions, has announced his resignation as regional coordinator.