Antonio Gozzi (Federacciai): The working-class vote for the AfD speaks volumes about the mistakes of a ‘deindustrialised’ EU

Rome. The threat posed by the AfD, following the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, leaves the political world with a doubt: have we failed to understand, or have we underestimated the situation? But there are those who, and not just recently, have been observing that voter base first-hand, having witnessed it whilst working in the German and Italian industrial sectors in Germany. Antonio Gozzi, vice-president of Confindustria and president of Federacciai and Duferco Italia Holding, says: “Often, when we say that industry is not merely of economic significance but also a bulwark of democracy, we are not understood. And the elections in Saxony-Anhalt seem to bear out our assertion: that vote makes the link between the rise of right-wing extremists and the widespread processes of deindustrialisation in that region – but more generally across Germany and Europe – entirely clear.” Gozzi cites a study by Lutz Schneider on the 2017 German federal elections, which analyses regional data and “shows that areas with a strong industrial tradition – areas that have suffered a sharp decline in manufacturing employment – tend to have significantly higher vote shares for the AfD. The effect is particularly pronounced precisely where local identity was historically linked to industry”. And when a factory closes down, says Gozzi, “it also means a loss of status, of professional identity, of collective organisations, of prospects for one’s children and of the region’s economic importance”. Saxony-Anhalt is almost “a textbook case in one of the economically weakest Länder”: “Initial analyses of the vote point to economic insecurity, demographic decline, resentment towards Berlin and distrust of traditional institutions as the primary determinants of the population’s voting behaviour, with a turnout that was exceptionally high by European standards (80 per cent of those eligible to vote)”. Sixty-one per cent of manual workers voted for the AfD: “This figure tells us something that the regional result alone does not reveal. If a far-right party manages to secure such a high share of the manual workers’ vote, we are no longer simply dealing with a party of the angry petty bourgeoisie, but with the fact that a substantial section of the former working-class electorate has repositioned itself politically. This shift has occurred not only because of current economic conditions, but because of the perceived trajectory of the region.” In other words, a mindset has taken hold along the lines of “the place where I live is losing its future; I don’t know what will happen to me and my children”. In Saxony, “two factors are at play: the collective memory of past industrial decline, given the massive industrial restructuring that followed the reunification of East Germany with the rest of the country, and the expectation of economic and demographic decline, which may weigh even more heavily than current unemployment”. This election result may not be an isolated case in Europe. “There are a great many industrial districts and sectors in Europe that have suffered – and continue to suffer – from severe processes of deindustrialisation, caused by excessive European regulation, the failure of EU policies to manage the transition pragmatically, the extremism of the Green Deal and the ‘market-driven’ ideology of globalisation, whereby everything can be bought anywhere. And, in an era of geopolitical upheaval in which the concepts of strategic autonomy and defence are back in vogue, people are beginning to realise the folly of having thought that we could do without industry, and in particular basic industry.” The left is paying a very high price: “German social democracy is in freefall. After all, if we have failed to defend the automotive sector in order to chase the myth of the electric car – produced mainly by Chinese manufacturers – if we have not opposed the drastic reduction in the production of internal combustion engine cars, in which Europe was a world leader, if Volkswagen announces the closure of four plants, if the basic chemicals sector has all but disappeared, if the blast furnace steel industry is destined to die out within a few years, why should we be surprised that 61 per cent of workers vote for the AfD?”. Another factor: “The external enemy: the first six months of 2026 show an influx of Chinese products into Europe. What does Europe intend to do? Will it repeat the mistakes of the Green Deal, abandoning industry to its fate? The paradox – or the nightmare – could be that Europe, which was born out of industry with the European Coal and Steel Community, will die because of industry. Without industry, there will be no more development or technological innovation, no jobs, no welfare, no social cohesion and no democracy.”