Meloni’s dilemmas: to lower the threshold or not? Another clash between the League and Forza Italia

It has now become a tried-and-tested method of the centre-right: reaching a compromise at the very last minute before the vote in the Chamber, with a last-minute, photo-finish agreement. All this whilst Forza Italia and the Lega continue to go at each other’s throats. As was the case yesterday, when they resumed their row over windfall profits. This rationale also explains the meeting convened for this morning by the technical experts overseeing the electoral law for the majority parties, tasked with resolving the final issues still on the table (despite the dozens and dozens of meetings and discussions that have taken place over recent months). Given the tightening timeframe, it was already clear that the bill would almost certainly reach the Chamber without a designated rapporteur. However, now that the ‘Stabilicum’ is due to be debated in the Senate chamber (with the vote set to begin late this morning), this will also mean a plenary vote on the amendment concerning preferential votes, which was approved in early September by the Constitutional Affairs Committee. “It will pass, but we’ll see by what margin,” whisper sources in the centre-right. And indeed, the scenario unfolding is the one feared by Prime Minister Meloni: the tensions plaguing the coalition being essentially replayed in Parliament. The League and Forza Italia, as mentioned, resumed their squabbling as recently as yesterday, with ‘League sources’ reporting ‘the grassroots’ impatience’ within the party towards Forza Italia’s opposition to the tax on banks’ windfall profits, announcing a parliamentary proposal for levies of up to 5 per cent. Even within the League itself, however, there is scepticism: “I don’t know how much support this move will bring us,” admits one MP. Minister Giorgetti has tried to mediate between the parties: “Extra profits fall with greater competition”. Adding to the tension are rumours of a change in the Senate group leader, with Massimiliano Romeo to be replaced by Claudio Borghi as a possible successor – another factor that does little to reassure about the stability of the group in the Senate (which is particularly northern-leaning). As for relations with the ‘dissident’ faction, today Salvini, on the sidelines of the second day of the ‘A tua difesa – verso la finanziaria 2027’ event, is set to hold talks with Lombardy’s president Attilio Fontana, though it is by no means certain that their differences will be resolved.

On the other hand, there is Forza Italia, which, at the very moment that voting resumes in the Chamber, must contend with a party conference such as the one in Campania. The fallout, as Giorgio Mulè, Deputy Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, admitted to Il Foglio, is likely to be significant. If only because of the slightest lapse in concentration this might cause amongst the senators who will have to make the journey from Rome to Naples and back. In fact, however, even within Fratelli d’Italia the position on certain proposals remains wavering: the party is leaning towards rejecting the amendment tabled in a personal capacity by Senator Marcello Pera to introduce a run-off vote (a provision that could be withdrawn). But yesterday, the chair of the Constitutional Affairs Committee, De Priamo – a supporter of Meloni – made it clear that no decision had yet been taken even on the threshold for qualifying for the majority bonus. Will it be the 42 per cent set in the Chamber of Deputies or the 41 per cent proposed by FdI Senator Ambrogio in an attempt to circumvent Vannacci’s potential breakthrough? Nor has a decision been reached on the so-called ‘anti-splinter party rule’. From the electoral law to the refinancing of fuel support measures (a decision is due within the next few hours, and efforts are still underway to identify where to source funds for income-based fuel subsidies), in short, the centre-right remains divided. Right up to the very last second.