Four years on, the government has hit a snag over aid to Kyiv: the new package is at risk of being postponed

There is a fine line linking the government’s apprehension over potential Kremlin interference in Italy, the counter-fears of ‘anti-Russian anxiety in some European chancelleries’ expressed by Salvini, and the decision on sending the next aid package to Ukraine. Just as there is the fact that, whilst celebrating its record as the longest-serving government, FdI chose to omit the Ukrainian issue. It is not certain that Meloni, in her speech lasting over an hour, will not refer to support for Kyiv. Yet the big elephant in the room is the arms deal, over which the government continues to argue and which could be postponed yet again.

This was also evident from the visit that Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani made a few days ago to Wicklow, in Ireland, for a summit with his European counterparts. On the sidelines of the summit, he reiterated that “following the 12 military aid packages we have sent, we are preparing another package”. However, even when asked for details by his European counterparts, Tajani was unable to provide further information. Defence Minister Guido Crosetto has taken a similar line, stating that he would like “genuine, real aid, not just token gestures”. According to him, the package “does not currently exist”. When Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni took part remotely in the meeting of the ‘Volenterosi’ led by French President Emmanuel Macron on 24 August, the only aid she was able to highlight – in a forum where discussions centred on new European-level funding totalling over 6 billion euros – was “Italy’s humanitarian commitment ahead of the winter season, which will continue with the dispatch of further generators intended, in particular, to support the resilience of the Ukrainian population and ensure the stability of the energy grid”. The latest military aid package approved by the Italian government – the twelfth – dates back to last November. Since then, communications from Palazzo Chigi have placed some emphasis on civilian aid, with around 300 electric generators sent to paediatric facilities. And on the military front? There is no small amount of confusion. Sources within the Ministry of Defence suggest that deliberations are still ongoing; in short, the decree is far from ready. It almost seems as though a postponement beyond the end of September could be on the cards. Back in July, the Prime Minister herself had stated that on this point ‘Minister Crosetto will be the one to assess the situation’. When rumours then began to circulate in the press that a plan was already in place, the minister issued an official statement to try to put a stop to the speculation. On that occasion, Crosetto made it clear that, in any case, the package would, as always, have to be approved by COPASIR. “This will also be the case this time, as soon as it is possible to draw up a package of genuine, real – rather than merely formal – aid. The offer, made jointly with the French and the British, to provide Ukraine with the technology to build its own air defence system is nothing new and was a common-sense decision.” He added, however, that he was struck by the fact that “people are speaking in general and ideological terms about aid to Ukraine with such bitterness”. This was a not-too-veiled reference to Vannacci’s constant outbursts and to Salvini’s hardening stance; indeed, as recently as this summer, Salvini had called for a continued focus on a diplomatic solution. Paradoxically, it was Tajani’s reassurances that underlined the extent of the confusion: he spoke of a package that is “on its way” and which he is waiting to sign, as usual, in agreement with Ministers Crosetto and Giorgetti.

In reality, the absence of any mention of support for Ukraine in the government’s self-congratulatory brochures also says something about the fears and reluctance simmering within Fratelli d’Italia. Meanwhile, within the majority itself, there are those who point out that after Bari, the next major event on the centre-right’s agenda will be Pontida, scheduled for 20 September. “And it is unlikely that Salvini’s supporters will turn up having to justify another arms shipment to their grassroots,” is the whisper within the coalition.