Meloni reaffirms her support for Zelensky (but new aid is on hold). FI opposes the windfall tax

On the one hand, she is pledging resources to Ukraine, joining the ranks of those willing to help and reiterating to Zelensky “firm support for the integrity and sovereignty of Kyiv”. On the other hand, Giorgia Meloni faces the challenge of having to find the funds to refinance the excise duty cut in the Council of Ministers by tomorrow, given that extending the measure via the ‘floating excise duty’ mechanism is merely a stopgap. Just as loosening the purse strings to support Kyiv is causing the government far more than a little concern – given that the last package dates back almost ten months – so too does the much-discussed tax on oil companies’ windfall profits fail to command a united majority. Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani, reinforcing Forza Italia’s opposition, stated that “the concept of windfall profits does not exist in law. It is an anti-industrial and anti-business concept”.

Yet within the centre-right, Matteo Salvini and the Lega have long been hammering home the need to raise taxes on operators in the sector. Just as he had previously called for in relation to the banks. And even FdI and Prime Minister Meloni herself are said to have been convinced of the need to opt for a solution that would allow for some revenue to be recouped. This was even before criticism rained down from the opposition (led by Elly Schlein), who are calling for the measure to be implemented. In reality, Italy has sought to take action at EU level, signing a letter alongside Germany, Austria, Poland and Portugal to call for taxation at European level. However, it is rather unlikely that the EU will be able to provide swift answers. For this reason, the government is also considering solutions specific to Italy. The most likely scenario is a roll-over of the excise duty cut for at least a week (although Assoutenti is calling for it to be extended at least until 6 September). On the subject of European flexibility – again in the energy sector, though this cannot be used to lower excise duties – the Minister for the Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, said yesterday that “by mid-September we will have a clearer picture” and that there will then be “a debate in the Council of Ministers”. There is also the long-standing issue that differing positions are constantly clashing within the executive: Adolfo Urso, Minister for Enterprise and ‘Made in Italy’ – one of those with the authority to act on the matter – continues to regard measures on excise duties as ‘ineffective’ and would prefer to reallocate funds to schemes such as the social card. Pichetto himself pointed out that ‘we cannot spend a billion a month; let’s consider targeted relief measures’. However, a compromise has yet to be reached.

This concerns the fuel sector, for which a special Council of Ministers meeting is due to be held this week (the new measures cannot be refinanced by interministerial decree). But yesterday, for Meloni, in addition to her visit to Amatrice to mark the tenth anniversary of the earthquake, where she met with the families of the victims (“‘The aim remains to rise to the challenge of the central Apennines’ revival’, said the Prime Minister”), was also a ‘return to work’ from an international perspective, as the Prime Minister took part via videoconference in the ‘Summit of the Willing’, convened to mark the 35th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence. Together with her allies (including British Prime Minister Andy Burnham), Meloni emphasised the need to strengthen the sanctions regime against the Kremlin, stepping up efforts to counter attempts to circumvent them. On the more strictly domestic front, however, the Prime Minister confirmed “Italy’s humanitarian commitment ahead of the winter season, which will continue with the dispatch of further generators intended specifically to support the resilience of the Ukrainian population and ensure the stability of the energy grid”. These are regular supplies from Italy, frequently mentioned in communications from Palazzo Chigi. This is also because, since the end of last year, the government has avoided discussing new military aid packages for Kyiv. Never before has more than six months elapsed between one package and the next (in this case, it has been almost ten months, since last November). The reason for this wait-and-see approach is a hardening of positions against sending new weapons, partly due to a campaign on this issue led by Vannacci, not only within the Lega but also within FdI. As recently as mid-July, it was Meloni herself who said that “Minister Crosetto will be the one to assess the situation”. Sources within the ruling coalition indicate that a new package could indeed be approved by the end of September. It could include anti-aircraft defence systems. However, this package is also linked, to some extent, to whether or not SAFE funds will be used, so the government will have to inform the EU of its intentions within the coming weeks. For this reason, despite the Defence Minister’s explicit desire to proceed in this direction, a political resolution within the majority has not yet been reached. These are distinct issues, but they all point to tensions within the government. The question of available resources will continue to be debated over the coming weeks and months, given that discussions on the budget are due to begin shortly. The parties have already launched an all-out attack on Minister Giorgetti. This is particularly true of the League, which has already asked its minister for flagship measures such as voluntary retirement at 64. Meanwhile, regarding the much-publicised anti-bureaucracy plan announced a few days ago, following the criticism levelled by Minister Zangrillo in Il Foglio, Deputy Prime Minister Tajani appears intent on defusing the row.