The mainstream faction is putting pressure on Schlein to secure a prominent position on the candidate lists

Rome. With Elly Schlein, yes. But only up to a point. Whilst the secretary wants to “bring L’Unità back home” – the historic communist newspaper – the Montepulciano faction is on the move and gathering pace. It is doing the maths, not least with a view to the candidate lists, especially given that the party congress is still some way off.

Within the centre-left, almost everyone now believes that the elections will be held in April, so there is a need to act swiftly, including with the primaries. Things have been working out a bit like this around here lately, as if in a self-fulfilling prophecy: there is an awareness that the primary polls risk poisoning the coalition, yet everyone carries on down their own path. Everyone warns of the risks of the contest, but at the very next sentence or question, they ramp it up again. From interview to interview, the tone grows more heated. Today, Giuseppe Conte, wearing a red handkerchief, will speak at Sant’Anna di Stazzema to commemorate the Nazi-Fascist massacre. And it will be another important platform.

As reported by Il Messaggero, all the leaders of the broad coalition will be in Montepulciano in early October. The Democratic Party leader is now the only one still pushing for the primaries to be held in early 2027, perhaps in the belief that, with the election just around the corner, no one will be able to back out. She also believes it will be easier to manage the internal dynamics within her party when it comes to drawing up the candidate lists: after all, Schlein has inherited the parliamentary group appointed by Enrico Letta. But the secretary’s calculations and timetable clash with the demands of her allies and also with those of the Franceschini-Orlando-Speranza faction: as far as the Montepulciano camp is concerned, if – as is only right – Schlein wishes to be the candidate for Prime Minister, then the leadership race must be settled by November. Otherwise – contrary to what they think at the Nazareno – there is a serious risk that the polling stations will be cancelled, and with them the coalition. Moreover, as a representative of the faction explains, “you can’t hold primaries in December or January; there’s a weather factor to take into account. And if the vote is in April, that would mean drawing up the candidate lists in February to submit them in March: how is that possible? We need to speed things up.”

Dario Franceschini’s camp had let the news leak out – perhaps they are still hoping for it – but as things stand today, the path to becoming the unifying figure looks complicated, and it is even more so to imagine that Conte might step aside in favour of Schlein. But that is not all: the outcome of the primaries could provide the Montepulciano faction with further valuable insights. And a central role for the ‘corrente’ means greater bargaining power when it comes to drawing up the candidate lists. It is clear that a defeat would seal Schlein’s fate at the helm of the PD. But even a victory of hers should be viewed with a critical eye, for not all victories are equal, and the strength (or weakness) of the PD leader is also reflected in the percentage of the vote. It is said that she did not take kindly to the interview given two days ago to Nicola Fratoianni. Speaking to "Corriere dell’Umbria", she urged her colleagues across the broad coalition to set aside personal agendas, whilst not ruling out that "AVS might also demonstrate its strength". The red-green left has for days been calling for a move away from street stalls, invoking the primacy of politics, and is "irritated" by the Schlein-Conte rivalry. But if it ultimately comes down to a head-to-head contest, it is unlikely to forgo fielding its own candidate. This line of reasoning exists and will be explored in greater depth over the coming days. After all, even Matteo Renzi, who yesterday reignited the debate on egg freezing, seems tempted. Then there is Alessandro Onorato, in the running with his Progetto Civico. He, too, is calling for primaries as soon as possible. Such is the state of affairs in this heated August for the left, and the temperature could soon rise even further. Conte is due to speak at Sant’Anna di Stazzema. He will discuss the Constitution, anti-fascism and democracy: history as a warning for the future. No to war and rearmament. Weapons for Kyiv? He will certainly issue “a call to return to diplomacy and dialogue”, according to his campaign headquarters. It is on this issue, above all, that he would like to go head-to-head with Schlein at the campaign stands. If they get that far: because whilst these primaries are now inevitable, it is by no means certain that they will actually take place.